2019 MLB Draft

I wonder if Houston might select an unsignable player (like Leiter) at 32 to set them up for a power draft next year (when they are very likely to already have an additional pick from Cole rejecting a QO).

 

That’s a really interesting idea. Any knowledge of whether or not next year is supposed to be a stronger draft than this year? I’m not even really sure if they’re considering this to be a strong one or what.

 

You're also giving up a year of development.

 

Would like to see the Astros take advantage of this if they can. They should have a decent record of developing players, and they have a bit of a weak spot at the GCL level.

 

Good to see this. I’ve long thought that any high school player picked in the top 10 rounds should pretty much always sign. The odds of the player’s value going down while in college far outweigh the odds of the player’s value going up. Especially considering the disparity in resources and priorities between college and the pros. Too many kids flamed out in college when they could’ve gotten mid 6 figure bonuses and pro level development.

 

Is this a particularly deep draft? Meh draft? I assume it's like any other MLB drafts...just throw out some darts and pray to God ours hit.

 

My opinion: Top 2 guys are elite; Rutschman and Witt are as good as any prospects drafted in the last 10 years. But after that it drops off pretty steep; the 3-20 guys to me are not as good as they normally are. But I think the 30-60 range has above average value, and as always there will be plenty of good players drafted in the 3rd-10th rounds. It’s a good year to draft 30th and it woulda been great for the Astros to have an extra pick.

 

Spoiler

32. JJ Goss, RHP, Cypress (Texas) Ranch HS.

The Astros could very well stay in their backyard in taking Goss from Cypress Ranch, which is only about 30 miles away from Minute Maid Park.

 

Spoiler

http://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/26881772

Keith Law's 2019 MLB Mock Draft 3.0

Draft day is here, with teams gathering in Secaucus, New Jersey, on Monday night for Rounds 1 and 2. Rounds 3 through 10 will be staged Tuesday, while Rounds 11 to 40 are slated for Wednesday.

I feel pretty good about my information through the midpoint of the first round, and after that, my confidence level decreases hyperbolically. I'll update this on Monday if I hear anything concrete enough to make me change any of these picks.

1. Baltimore Orioles: Adley Rutschman, C, Oregon State

There's still a chance the Orioles will take Andrew Vaughn (and try to make him a third baseman), or even go for Bobby Witt Jr., but the industry is betting that they don't pass on the consensus No. 1 prospect in the class.

2. Kansas City Royals: Bobby Witt Jr., SS, Colleyville (Texas) Heritage HS

The only question is whether the Royals might switch to Rutschman if Vaughn goes No. 1. Otherwise, this appears to be a lock. They're not taking Vaughn.

3. Chicago White Sox: Andrew Vaughn, 1B, Cal

They could take C.J. Abrams -- but that seems less likely than it did a week ago -- or even J.J. Bleday. If Vaughn goes No. 1 and Witt No. 2, they would take Rutschman. Fun fact: The last time the White Sox picked in the top 10 and took a high school player was 1985, when they selected Kurt Brown fifth overall ... one pick ahead of Barry Bonds.

4. Miami Marlins: J.J. Bleday, OF, Vanderbilt

I think the Marlins would even take Bleday if Vaughn were here. Rutschman might be the only name that could change their minds.

5. Detroit Tigers: Riley Greene, OF, Hagerty HS (Oviedo, Florida)

If Vaughn gets here, they take him. There is some small chance they could pass on Greene for Nick Lodolo, but I doubt it.

6. San Diego Padres: C.J. Abrams, SS, Blessed Trinity HS (Roswell, Georgia)

If Greene gets here, they take him. There have been a slew of rumors the last week about Abrams slipping, but I think if the top five go chalk, the Padres are taking Abrams.

7. Cincinnati Reds: Nick Lodolo, LHP, TCU

If Lodolo goes at No. 5, they could take Shea Langeliers or George Kirby.

8. Texas Rangers: Alek Manoah, RHP, West Virginia

They've explored some under-slot deals, but I think they've coalesced around Manoah in the past week, after earlier seeming less interested.

9. Atlanta Braves: Corbin Carroll, OF, Lakeside HS (Seattle)

Carroll and Langeliers are the leading contenders here, assuming that Manoah is gone; I do think they'd take Manoah over them. They seem to have cooled on Hunter Bishop and Jackson Rutledge.

10. San Francisco Giants: Josh Jung, 3B, Texas Tech

Sounds like it's mostly college bats here, such as Jung, Bryson Stott, Hunter Bishop and maybe even Michael Busch.

11. Toronto Blue Jays: Jackson Rutledge, RHP, San Jacinto College

Probably a college arm here, counting Rutledge as one, although I hear mixed things on whether they would take Manoah. If Rutledge doesn't go here, he could really slide.

12. New York Mets: Zack Thompson, LHP, Kentucky

College player for sure, and Thompson's name has popped up with the Mets a few times in the past week, even over Kirby.

13. Minnesota Twins: Bryson Stott, SS, UNLV

I've also heard the Twins a lot with Langeliers. Keoni Cavaco worked out for them last week, but I think that would be a well-under-slot deal, and Cavaco doesn't need to take that.

14. Philadelphia Phillies: Hunter Bishop, OF, Arizona State

This feels low for Bishop, who was leading Division I in homers early and is still tied for sixth (fourth among major conferences). The Phillies are wide open; I've heard them linked to hitters and pitchers, college and high school guys, including Will Wilson, Brennan Malone, Brett Baty, Carroll and Gunnar Henderson.

15. Los Angeles Angels: Keoni Cavaco, 3B, Eastlake HS (Chula Vista, California)

I hear them on big upside plays, of which Cavaco would be one, as would some of the better prep arms such as Malone or Matt Allan.

16. Arizona Diamondbacks: Brett Baty, 3B, Lake Travis HS (Austin, Texas)

Arizona is linked to everybody because it has four picks in the top 34, so the Diamondbacks have been heavily scouting everyone but the top few names. I think they go for broke with the first two picks, knowing they could lose someone they like to a team such as the Dodgers.

17. Washington Nationals: Matt Allan, RHP, Seminole HS (Sanford, Florida)

They could be in on Kirby or Langeliers, as well, but Allan's name keeps coming up with them.

18. Pittsburgh Pirates: Shea Langeliers, C, Baylor

I've also heard them with Wilson, Matthew Lugo, Quinn Priester and Tyler Callihan.

19. St. Louis Cardinals: Will Wilson, SS, NC State

The Cardinals' mix is a strange one, but it seems to also include Henderson and Maurice Hampton.

20. Seattle Mariners: George Kirby, RHP, Elon

This is the floor for a handful of guys such as Carroll, Langeliers and probably Wilson -- or the Mariners could roll the dice on more upside with Kam Misner.

21. Atlanta Braves: Quinn Priester, RHP, Cary-Grove (Illinois) HS

I really think the Braves go pitcher here, more likely prep, even if they end up with an arm at No. 9 (which I don't have in this mock).

22. Tampa Bay Rays: Matthew Lugo, SS, Carlos Beltran Baseball Academy (Florida, Puerto Rico)

They'll be opportunistic, hoping someone falls to them, like Matthew Liberatore did last year.

23. Colorado Rockies: Michael Busch, 1B, North Carolina

To be honest, I've heard more about them being off specific players than on anyone. Like, a lot.

24. Cleveland Indians: Maurice Hampton, OF, Memphis University HS

I have heard this rumor for a month now, although that probably makes it seem more like a lock than it actually is. I've also heard the Indians with prep shortstop Kyren Paris, who might go in the comp round if he doesn't go here or with Tampa.

25. Los Angeles Dodgers: Gunnar Henderson, SS, Morgan Academy (Selma, Alabama)

This might be Henderson's floor, either here or pick 26, although there are teams below this spot who would like to take him.

26. Arizona Diamondbacks: J.J. Goss, RHP, Cypress Ranch HS (Houston)

They've been attached to every prep arm, of course, but if they go this course here, look for them to try to save money with an under-slot guy at pick 33 and/or 34.

27. Chicago Cubs: Logan Davidson, SS, Clemson

I've heard them with some college arms that might be modest reaches at this pick, but in a weak pitching draft, it might make more sense.

28. Milwaukee Brewers: Kam Misner, OF, Missouri

The Brewers might be Lugo's floor. I heard them being in on Baty earlier this month, and they're a dark horse for Paris.

29. Oakland Athletics: Greg Jones, SS, UNC-Wilmington

They're also in on Baty, Davidson, Wilson, Goss and Kody Hoese.

30. New York Yankees: Kody Hoese, 3B, Tulane

They've been linked to Lugo, Henderson, Kirby, Ryan Jensen and Rece Hinds. There also has been a rumor that Jack Leiter would only sign with the Yankees or Mets.

31. Los Angeles Dodgers: Brennan Malone, RHP, IMG Academy

I'm not sure why Malone seems to have slipped in the past week, but there's definitely some cooling of interest in him. Or I am sure and I'm not telling you. You decide.

32. Houston Astros: Seth Johnson, RHP, Campbell

It seems like the industry expects Houston to take a college guy here, perhaps someone like Johnson or Louisville's Logan Wyatt, who seems like a perfect guy to take with the intention of reworking his swing to tap into his power.

 

So far 2 mocks posted today, 1 has them taking a HS player, and the other says that everyone expects them to go the college route?

 

Brett Baty can flipping rake. It's gonna take somebody a bunch of money to sign him, because he's happy to go to UT if he's not drafted high, but man. Full blown great athlete too, could have been a D1 QB but he gave up football as a freshman, had inquiries about D1 basketball scholarships until the coaches found out how good he was at baseball.

Heard one scout blurb call him the best hitter to come out of Central Texas since Lance Berkman and the best player since Huston Street.

He is a Rangers fan though, nobody's perfect.

eta: oh, he was also their closer, and moved into the rotation during the playoffs when they had a starter get hurt and threw a 1-hit 1-0 shutout.

 

Here's my yearly list of ranging from guys I want to busts. I've expanded the list to even the unattainable guys like Rutschman, Witt Jr. and Vaughn.

Want: C.J. Abrams, Jackson Rutledge, Brennan Malone, Hunter Bishop, Spencer Jones, Michael Toglia, Adley Rutschman
Wouldn't Mind: Andrew Vaughn, Riley Greene, Garrett Frechette, Jason Hodges, J.J. Bleday, Brandon Lewis, Blake Walston
Worried About/Hesitant About Us Picking: Rece Hinds, Greg Jones, James Beard, Connor Walsh, Edouard Julien, Logan Davidson
Deck McGuire Clones/Away From: Bobby Witt Jr., Brett Baty, Tyler Callihan, Michael Limoncelli

 

What's your proble with Davidson? Is it that his college BA is under 300 (common red flag I've seen)? Or wooden bat struggles (sounds familiar..... his former Clemson teammate Beer)? I really like him, he's my "pet cat". Not quite sure why. I also like Braden Shewmake, he's kinda like Davidson. I want a LHH/SH infielder, though I know we're going for BPA, and I'm personally expecting a pitcher. Toglia has a great bat, and excellent defense at 1B, though after selecting Beer (1B) last year, and a potential OF crunch, I see it tough to fit him in the lineup.

 

The draft is starting now.

For fun, I'm just gonna list a few names I like that sound like baseball names.

Riley Greene

Hunter Bishop

J.J. Bleday

Jackson Rutledge

George Kirby

Quinn Priester

Brennan Malone

Michael Busch (great meme potential with Beer)

Gunnar Henderson

Braden Shewmake

 

His wood bat history is a concern for me. I thought Beer would hit his draft year.