Will House be better than Ariza was in playoffs this year?

Knack for momentum changing plays.....

 

Yeah Ariza role with the team was kinda different.
House has more potential and has long term value due to his participation in the the summer league, he is kinda like a draft pick.

Not mistaken ariza is a vet with ring

 

C'mon man! Way to focus on one series and ignore the whole playoffs.
He was 28% from 3 in the entire playoffs last year (36% from the field). All the advanced stats suggest he didn't have much impact defensively either...

He looked washed.

 

Pretty much this. Different play styles and different team. Ariza is probably better but overall the team is better than last year.

 

I understand this is a bigbum thread but more poll options are necessary.

Multiple FGs in a game 6 or 7 makes House a better contributor. Their defense will be negligible.

 

I think so. According to Ariza, Morey told him Rockets weren’t resigning him since he sucked so bad in game 7 last year.

 

Ariza did all he could to train harden and the organization amnestied ariza to get pass both the ginobilli block on harden and everything else that messed over harden and rockets in years past.

Getting ariza out of the west after dangelo russell got put out the west.

 

Ariza is old, man. He was 32 last year he is 33 now and he has spent all of his career running hard and chasing the best players in the league. A younger Ariza is better than current House but that younger Ariza doesn't exist anymore, you just have the old Ariza who missed a ton of shots in game 7 last year.

Besides, it's really EG vs Ariza than House vs Ariza because EG is the starter, House replaced LMM last year in the rotation and House is def better than injured LMM last year.

 

It's incredibly hard to say as they are two incredibly different players.

Ariza was a savvy veteran who brought locker room leadership, fought hard every defensive position guarding the other team's best player and was essentially the Battier of last year's squad. There's no way in hell that today's version of House could have had the impact Ariza did on last year's run. Yes, Ariza had an AWFUL Game 7, but he was hardly the only reason why we lost that game.

Not to take anything away from the year House has had though, the man is on his way to getting PAID this summer. House has stepped up to the plate in a major way this whole year hitting his open threes, playing with a high motor every game, and better yet looks completely unfazed in the playoffs!

However, the role that he will have on us ultimately winning the chip will be very different than what Ariza would have had. We are a better squad than last year primarily due to our depth and House is a huge reason why our depth is so much better.

 

Good thread. I wanted to write about how we replace Ariza in the all-important GSW series, just didn't want to annoy the basketball gods before we finish the Jazz... But since the topic came up, here we go.

What are we replacing?
Last year the whole team played unbelievable defense against the best offensive team in history, and Ariza was a major part of it. He played big minutes, but was generally minus on offense, missing tons of open threes. One question I have is: was it worth it? In hindsight, what if Joe Johnson and Ryno were given a bit more leash, accepting their shortcomings on D, with the idea of getting a few more buckets on the other end, and getting a bit more rest for the main guys? The issue may come-up this year as well: if House, for example, gets lost on D in the fast and intricate actions that GSW runs, do you sit him down, or do you give him some leash, because of his better offense?

We don't know the answer to that, and it is a very, very fine trade-off that probably cannot be calculated with certainty. However, here's what I am certain of, in particular: I would rather have better offense than having Ariza-level defense on KD. Ariza was on KD a lot, and played him as well as you could hope. The problem is that with KD it does not matter; he'll get his shot anyway. Some players' production is highly dependent on the D, others' is not. Give Klay Thompson shooting space and he'll explode for 70 in no time; play him tight and he's average. Let Shaq get position under the rim and he can score 100; body him up and keep him away, and he's manageable.

KD is like Hakeem and MJ: the defense does not matter much. Dream was, in fact, better against better defenders, and there is a reason why he never had a memorable All-Star game (in my memory, at least); his brilliance was that he was unguardable, not that he could score a lot of garbage points. KD is a bit like this, too. The return on investment of great defense on him is pretty small. I am certain that I don't want to hear Reggie Miller's extolling "great defense, better offense", I don't care for that. We surrender a bucket, period.

In fact for this particular GSW team, I would rather have them channel more stuff through KD, than through Steph. KD makes them stagnant and we can live with that. Steph's stuff is more explosive and demoralizing.

So if House gives us better O, but is inadequate against KD, in my book that's an improvement over last year.

However, House will not eat up all 37-38 mpg that Ariza logged last year, and may not even get any of them.

So how do we split Ariza's minutes? Let's look into this in more detail.

1. Clint Capela.
Clint averaged 26 mpg in the first 5 games (prior to CP3's injury), with D'Antony going for long stretches with the Tuck-wagon lineup. There's no reason for him to play less than 36 mpg this year, so that's 10 minutes right there. Clint was not bad last year. He didn't score much, mainly because Draymond showed a lot respect for the lob and was attached to him all the time. That's a win: Draymond Green is the best roaming defender in the NBA, anytime you pin him down to stay attached to a guy, you are gaining an advantage.

The reason Mike played so much with Tuck at 5 was not because Clint was particularly bad, but: 1. Tuck was better communicating from the back of the D (GSW offense is very intricate, you need a good brain and a good voice in the back to direct the D), and 2. Opening up space for drives (EG in particular was effective). That second reason, however, was negated by Ariza's cold shooting, which allowed rotations to close the lane...

This year should be different. Clint is an improved player, he needs to get more minutes, replacing some of Ariza's minutes. (Obviously, Clint is a C, Ariza is a F, so the actual minute replacement is Tucker gets Ariza's minutes at F, Clint gets Tuck's minutes at C. But the net substitution is Clint for Ariza)

2. Austin Rivers.
This kid is OK. I think we should have a three-guard lineup at all times (i.e. three from EG-James-CP3-Rivers), which was not the case last year. The Clint-Tuck-Ariza starting lineup featured two guards only, so playing three guards all the time should eat some of Ariza's minutes.

At least one of CP3/Austin Rivers should be on the floor at all times when Steph is playing, giving us two good on-ball defenders to throw at him. "Austin on Steph: The Family Feud" is a fun match-up between these brothers in law. Austin is an irritant, Steph is a showman. There is some potential for extracurriculars here that can only benefit us. If we can get Steph to focus on showing Austin off, instead of running the right play, that's a win for us.

Also, Rivers can drive on these guys. Especially when Clint sits and we play Tuck at C (I don't think Faried plays against GSW), and we spread out. In these lineups, they won't have anyone who can stop our third guard (EG or Austin) from driving. Both KD and Igoudala can be exploited, in fact EG did a good job last year. Now we have one more option in Austin. All-in-all, I think the kid will be a plus for us, relative to last year...

3. House Jr.
I am sold on the guy: very solid, good shooter, attacks close-outs.... However, the playoffs are a different beast, and a HOU-GSW series is something completely different, still, whole 'nother level... Last year Quinn Cook was that guy for GSW: a two-way player turned savior when Steph went down. Yet, come WCF he couldn't get minutes. Competent veterans like Joe Johnson and Ryno could not get minutes... We'll have to see how it goes, I guess. I am high on House, but not sure we can count on him as a certainty.

4. Shumpert.
Shump is the closest straight-up substitution to Ariza that we have on the roster: good D, competent movement and positioning in switches and rotations, championship pedigree, poor shooting. He's not as long, and has been generally not very comfortable in Rockets uniform, but I think, if given minutes he'll give us maybe 80-85% of what Ariza gave us last year. The fact that most will agree that options 1-3 above are better, is a good sign: our team has the potential to be better this year without Ariza, given that most of us consider the quasi-Ariza an unappealing option.

(Gerald Green should play probably as much as last year, so he's not figuring in getting any of Ariza's minutes')

 

Gerald Green sucks donkey ass.

No minutes if D’Antoni is worth anything.

 

I think going forward , that's a no brainer decision …. Ariza is well past his prime and House is a pup.

They really are two different players even if they play the same position.

Really , I think Rivers has been the guy to replace those little things Ariza did defensively more often than not. He's an under rated player on both ends of the court.

 

if i recall well, his 3pt shooting for rockets was always trash in playoffs

 

I agree with most of your views.

It is impossible to defeat a strong offensive team of historical rank like the Warriors by defense alone.

Similarly, it's naive and foolish to want to freeze KD SC KT scorers (three-point shooters) at the defensive end, because it's impossible. Although I don't want to admit it, they may be the three best shooters on the planet. You can't expect them to miss the goal.



Q: Apart from the three-point goal, does Trevor improve us at the offensive end?
A: Almost No. Trevor's offensive energy is like an old man, his feet are heavy and slow. it always staggers and looks very worried.


Q: Did Trevor defend well?
A: I think it's really excellent.


Q: What is Trevor's defensive attitude towards KD?
A: I think he has done his best.


Q: So has KD been frozen?
A: No. He can still do it easily if he wants get 30.


So instead of trying to defend as hard as possible, I think it's better to build up the firepower and talent at the offensive end to compete with the warriors. We have Harden, CP3, EG. Last year we just lost out to luck, just a little bit of attacking talent. Of the 27 heartbreaking offensive rounds, maybe we only need a few offensive rounds to show up. With energy-gifted men like House, Rivers and Faried contributing, the game may end differently.


To defeat them, the defensive side just needs to do what we should do.
More importantly, on the offensive side, when they use their talent to hurt us, we must respond to the same level or even better offensive performance. Only in this way can we win more hope.

To some extent, in order to defeat the Warriors, we must take the "seek life in the midst of death" approach.

 

That wasn't the case , he didn't resign him because of financial reasons …. Just about any reasonable contract Morey would have given him would have guaranteed the luxury tax.

Had nothing to do with one game ...

 

Excellent post, NewAge, glad I read it. Particularly this:

I hadn't thought of it that way, and I think you're right. Ariza played KD fantastically last series and KD would still just nail hard shots like Kobie vs Battier. Curry and Thompson getting easy shots in the flow of the offense can be more demoralizing.

No Faried? He was indeed DNP in several games in the last two weeks of the season, but if he was out Nene was always in. I can't remember the last time I saw the Tuckwagon lineup with PJ at the 5. Maybe when Clint was injured. I think we've been so consistently murdered on defensive rebounding this year that the coaches have conceded smallball to some extent. I think there will always be either Clint, Faried, or Nene at the 5 all 48 minutes.

 

@Nolen
Thanks for the compliments!
Regarding Faried/Nene, it will be Kerr who forces the issue. Remember, last year he shelved all his bigs, even though they played a lot during the regular season: Javalee McGee, D. West, Pachulia... Now he only has Bogut as a traditional big and if he plays him, we kill them. I mean, James is clowning the DPOY to a point where some are calling for Quinn Snyder to bench him! Bogut was playing Aussie league couple of months ago... It will be back to Looney/Igoudala.

By increasing Clint's minutes, we already will be playing bigger than last year, but I think this will be OK. Not many people talk about it, but Clint has exceptional footwork for a big, he should be OK. GSW going small has been murder, but I noticed even back in the 2015 WCF, as a clueless rookie, Capela could hold his own against Curry on the perimeter, while Dwight was getting killed (and DH12 is regarded as a mobile big, mind you.)

No offense to Faried, but he is a more traditional flat-footed big man, I don't think he survives the Warrior small-ball ...

Now, one caveat: if Austin Rivers could go over the Draymond pick, so that we don't have to switch, that may open minutes for Faried. It's not easy, but if anyone can do it, Austin has the tenacity and the feet for that. That may allow Faried to stay back.. All-in-all, however, I'm skeptical Faried sees any meaningful minutes...

 

Nah, in 4 seasons:

37.5% in 2014-15 over 17 games
14.3% in 2015-16 over 5 games
37.7% in 2016-17 over 11 games
28.6% in 2017-18 over 17 games

If we don't consider the 2015-16 series against the Warriors since we were a broken team, and those three games (3 on 22) that definitely ruined his % in the last season, i think he was kinda consistent.

 

You want a House, or a Freeza (Game 7 Warriors hero)?

 

i kinda feel you but thats a lot of exclusion, picking and choosing right there

but i was wrong that he was trash every year.. he had 2 good years, 2 awful years

28 % over 17 games is terrible ....BREWERESQUE

14% over 5 games in 2016? well... i dont even think thats something that brewer could achieve...simply unforgivable