Couple of points: 1) We have no idea what their capacity for payroll really is. That's Crane's business, but yes, we are not the blue bloods. Also there's a big increase in the Fox tv deal starting in '22. 2) You don't lose draft picks for going over the tax, if you are 40M over, your 1st pick gets pushed back 10 spots unless it's in the top-6 (then your 2nd pick gets pushed back). This run will eventually end, as all things in sports are cyclical, but they've done a great job so far to maximize their window of awesomeness.
Just so we're clear on the luxury tax penalties, the one that affect the draft is that your first round pick drops 10 places, if you exceed the tax level in excess of $40 million. So the 2020 luxury tax level is $208 million. The Astros payroll would have to exceed $248 million to invoke the draft pick penalty, which would drop their first pick 10 places (e.g. from late first to early second round). It would really take a lot of salary increase to reach that point, and the result hardly seems like it would greatly impact their ability to "draft and develop talent". I can definitely see the Astros keeping most of the core together. The team made all kinds of money with a negligible payroll during years of rebuilding - and have continued to make money during the competitive window. The franchise value is going up and revenues are increasing. They can certainly afford a high payroll year or two without going bankrupt.
Assuming Astros would be willing to take the risk on the years Cole may get... Astros trade Reddick and Gurriel this year with a couple of prospects. Cole extension includes this year (I believe this is allowed) such that tax payments for Cole in subsequent years is about 24 million. That cuts the 229 number to 203. LMJ replaces McHugh. Whitley replaces Miley. Astros have enough high end relievers so no need to replace Harris, Smith, Rondon with anything other than prospects. Chirinos is probably only free agent that needs to be replaced externally. Between Kemp, Straw, Alvarez, and Diaz, Astros should be able to find someone to fill gap for Brantley who would likely need to be traded next year. That leaves about 16 million for a catcher. Granted, I doubt Cole gets extended. Though, I expect Astros to add a SP this year before deadline who may have a year or two left after this year.
Astros will make an offer to Cole. They have wanted him for some time and now that they have him will try and keep him. He might not accept the offer like keuchel did back in 15 when the Astros offered 5 years 90 million but I can’t see the Astros not trying.
Hell yeah. Bring him home (a product of The Woodlands HS who once threw a 19 K no-hitter against those losers from cornroe). Awesome news about Verlander. Keeps him here through '21 and gives our staff that much more time to work with him.
I'm not sure what thread I posted it but I said pretty much what you said. They would have to trade away guys like Reddick, Gurriel, etc either at the deadline or after the season. They tried this offseason to trade Reddick and the teams wanted the Astros to eat quite a bit of salary so they backed off that idea. We will have to see if Luhnow is willing to throw in a prospect to get teams to take on all of Reddick's deal. Gurriel has an AAV of 10.4 million I believe. That's not going to be easy to trade either when he is about to turn 35 in a few months. I also base my comments on what Crane has said in the media. He said in the winter meetings they won't go over the luxury tax this year. When Cole was first asked by the media about a possible extension because Crane said they would love to have Verlander and Cole, it was also when Cole just won his arbitration. He was kinda pissed about the whole thing and gave sort of a flippant answer. Now he is denying any negotiations are even happening. I should have worded it better regarding the draft penalty. From what I've been told, Crane might bump up payroll temporarily over the tax threshold in a particular season if he feels like it could make the difference of being a champion contender or not but they aren't interested in paying the repeater taxes. Also, with the increasing salaries of Correa, McCullers, etc, etc they want to push back hitting the tax for as many years as they can. That way at the end of the run they can make that bounce up in payroll for one last charge so to speak. Crane doesn't own 100% of the Astros like Drayton. He has a board that holds him accountable.
ok but now do pay roll after the players I mentioned are gone, including Verlander by 2022. Like stros4me pointed out, the flexibility is great going forward. Personally, I'll let the Gm and crane worry about it and enjoy the seasons.
Reddick and Gurriel are likely very easy to trade with prospects. Astros aren't going to trade propsects without subsequent move in place that makes it worth it.
It's too hard to extrapolate the numbers beyond 2020. Too many variables when performance dictates arbitration salaries and then you have unknowns like injuries. Correa could make 12 million in 2021 or 25 million. If Whitley gets called up earlier than expected and/or is a super 2 he could be in arbitration by 2022. Injuries have 13 million on the sidelines to start the season with Smith and McCullers. You also have a new CBA coming up. It gets too convoluted.
Verlander deal confirmed. Mark Berman @MarkBermanFox26 MLB sources: @JustinVerlander and the #Astros have reached an agreement on a two-year extension worth $66 million. Justin was heading into the final year of his contract.
Mark Berman @MarkBermanFox26 MLB sources: @JustinVerlander and the #Astros have reached an agreement on a two-year extension worth $66 million. Justin was heading into the final year of his contract.
Where are our @moderators to start combining all this stuff. Getting confusing having contract talk going on simultaneously in 4 different threads. On topic: I was not expecting this, but I did suspect that JV and new family wouldn't want to relocate for the last few years of his career. Crane has said and now made it pretty clear that he loves and values top-shelf pitching. I love this offseason. 10/10. Would hit.
Circumstances change, and I have no crystal ball, but I wouldn't expect that until next offseason. But I would definitely expect it then.
Wait, why are we trading Yuli? Very productive, good defense, and relatively cheap at $8M. Reddick I can see being moved.
It's just theoretical if the Astros extend Cole they probably need to shed some payroll after the 2019 season. Gurriel's salary counts as 9.5 million per year against the cap I believe.
I also love that the only thing we've really had to talk about all ST is contract talk happening in the last week. I have a lot of love for the Astros right now. Think I've used that word 7 times today.
