Kevin O'Connor in his ringer podcast mentioned an NBA exec told him "I love watching them play because they always trust the math." tbh, some moments in the second half of the season gave me ulcers, but then you see the games like what happened in Boston (rematch) or in Utah where they completely and utterly turn from what was an ugly slugfest with the entire crowd against them, into a wide open game. It's almost magic or voodoo. We're four games in with many more games to go. Was what we saw a regular season fluke that gives you horrible flashbacks and PTSD for what lies ahead, or can we do what we've done and still beat the warriors and beyond?
The math isn’t the variable to trust in or not. It’s math so it will always be dependable. It’s the conversion rate and the shot weighting. We can overcome poor three point shooting if we shoot in volume. Or we can convert at a higher clip and therefore need fewer possessions. But because threes are 1.5x any other shot, that means we can shoot threes 50% less effectively than a team that shoots an equivalent number of midrange and still come out even with them. But that means we’d have to shoot at a 30% three rate to match the leagues roughly 45% shooting from midrange. Given that we don’t shoot that poorly, it’s a better decision to go with the three ball.
My opinion on series: Game 1: CP3 had mid range shot all game but was in distribute mode. CP3 couldn’t believe T-Wolves weren’t doubling him and getting the ball out of his hands immediately like they have in the past. CP3 was passing to guys covered. Game 2 and since: CP3 has been more aggressive and taking that mid range shot. Game 4: Harden was struggling in the 1st and 2nd quarter missing shot after shot for 2 points. I believe the turning point was early in the 3rd quarter when Harden drove and then stopped on a dime at the free throw line and did his step back for a make. Harden then continued to hit a few more which helped him start making his 3’s. It opened up everything for the team. When shooters are missing their jump shots; it’s recommended to drive in order to get fouls so that free throws can help build your confidence by seeing the ball go thru the rim. Start gauging the rim better. Problem in the first 3 games/playoffs.....refs swallow their whistles and have not been sending Harden to the line very often on his drives. Harden took himself to the line in that 3rd quarter of game 4 in live action. Took off from there. Harden has been learning each and every year.....going along with supporting cast improving each year.
Couldn’t decide between option 2 and option 3. So I went with 3 because my trust in harden has never wavered even tho I fully support statistics and the math.
Man, Chris Vernon's a dummy. "If Clint Capela went to another team, we'd never hear from him again." Like a long, athletic big man who sets good picks and rolls to the paint effectively wouldn't be useful in most NBA offenses these days. Harden's / Paul's mastery of the PnR makes Clint look good, for sure, and Houston's the ideal home for him. But I think Clint would thrive in Toronto, Miami (over Whiteside), Washington (over Gortat), or in any other offense that relies heavily on the PnR. I like most of The Ringer's podcasts, but Chris Vernon is borderline unlistenable.
We talk much about offensive stats - shot selection, etc... what i would be interested in is looking at our defensive positioning/strategy in correlation to certain offensive types. I assert this is the key to our defensive prowess in the latter part of this year. Yes, we communicate better and there must be schematical sets that we utilize more than others... this kind of analysis, i assert, has set us up way ahead of the game. We have essentially mastered the offensive side.
I trust the @Mathrocker. He told me his friend Max Kellerman thinks that if the Rockets play their "A" game, the West is a wrap.
Averages are averages. We’ve been shooting way below average. It’ll even out. That means having games where we shoot insane numbers and games where we shoot right at average. It’s the way basketball works.
yep math also proves that the game 3 loss was miraculous we should have swept this team under non miraculous circumstances
A friend of mine thinks that Joe Ingles looks like a math teacher, not a basketball player. Get 'er done, Mauly!
