2018 Astros Minor League Thread

That's pretty much exactly what we anticipated, so yeah real no surprises.

4 departed Astro farmhands on the list as well.

Without doing too much fact checking, including these guys we have traded 14 guys who were/are top 100 prospects starting with the Gattis trade at the beginning of 2015. We have 5 or 6 still on the roster and the current 4. That's almost 25 different players in 3 calendar years.

I think we had maybe 10 total from 02-10

 

Houston’s 4 Top 100 prospects puts them behind 9 other teams. The Braves have 8. Brewers, Padres, Rays, and Yankees have 6. Phillies, Twins, Reds, and White Sox have 5.

In the AL West, the As also have 4, the Angels 3 (including Ohtani), Rangers 2, and Mariners 1. The Cubs and Royals didn’t have a prospect on the list.

Based on this list and what little I know of other systems’ depth, I would say Houston’s farm should be ranked in the 8-11 range. Graduating Tucker and Whitley will put a big dent in it if they don’t have 2-3 other prospects make the jump into the top 100. Prospects I think could be on next year’s list:

Abraham Toro: if he’s a catcher full time and hits like he did last season
JJ Matijevic: if he dominates A ball and is able to play 2B
Freudis Nova: if scouts rave about him in the GCL or if he reaches QC and holds his own
Gilberto Celestino: if he is put in QC and hits well
Joe Perez: if scouts rave about him in the GCL or if he reaches QC and holds his own
Jairo Solis: if he is put in QC and pitches well
Corbin Martin: if he dominates A and high A levels
Hector Perez: if he pitches well in AA
Jorge Alcala: if he pitches well in AA or is throwing 102 with good results in High A
Cionel Perez: if he dominates AA

 

I thought Whitley and Alvarez would be slightly higher, and Bukauskas and Tucker a little lower. Interesting that Whitley is the 2nd pitcher behind Ohtani, but only comes in at #10. I wonder if he still would have been #9 if Ohtani didn't come over and he was the #1 pitching prospect.

Turns out we gave up very good value in that McCann trade (Abreu & Guzman, with Guzman being part of the Stanton trade), not that I'm going to complain given the result.

 

Do Yankees get over-represented in these Top 100 Prospects lists?

 

I would expect the teams with 1-2 prospects to likely be over-represented. Anecdotally, these guys tend to be toolsy guys that either can't hit minor league hitting or pitchers that can't throw strikes when I look them up that I would not think would be ranked from a stocked team.

 

I tend to think so. I can't help but think that Abreu wouldn't have gotten nearly as much hype if there weren't dozens of Yankees blog articles on him over the past year. He was a good prospect (a top Appy league prospect in 2016) but he didn't have the breakout in 2017 that typically precedes a top 100 appearance.

 

I think guys that get traded see a bump. I still think of Willy Adames after being traded for David Price. All of a sudden he was a Top 100 guy.

 

Anyone have the Keith Law article about top 100 prospects?

 

I don't have an Insider account but I found this on Twitter...

 

Alvarez should really be #37. Or 27, I forget.

This list is invalid.

 

In all seriousness, the differences between the expected values of the 27th, 37th, 40th, and 62nd rated prospects are minimal. Most of the time, the 27th prospect will produce nothing. Most of the time, the 62nd prospect will produce nothing. The 27th rated prospect has only a slight chance better than the 62nd best prospect to be an average starter in the majors.

 

I was being completely serious.

 

More love for Alvarez:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/kiley-mcdaniel-chat-1-24-18/

A good showing in AA will likely have him as a consensus top 25 prospect by the end of the season. Defensive limitations will limit his hype and keep him out of the top 10 but everyone is loving him for now.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/tht/tht-annual-2018/the-state-of-scouting/

Excerpt (more on Astros and scouting in general at the link.
--
In 2017, the Houston Astros made changes to their scouting departments that might indicate their vision of that future. Houston fired several scouts on both the pro and amateur side, combining the pro and amateur departments under a single roof and asking the remaining scouts to scout both amateur and pro ball, focusing on one or the other as they become more or less relevant throughout the year. The rest of the slack will theoretically be picked up by video and data and the in-office personnel who dissect them.
--

I'm not sure Astros aren't going to hire additional scouts to replace some of the guys fired, but interesting information on how the Astros scouting department changes are viewed.

 

I'm surprised Alvarez didn't make MLB.com Top 10 1B list. Seems like industry consensus is that he's close to a top 50 prospect overall, ~55 future value. MLB.com's 1B list only has 3 players with 55 overall grade. I wonder if it's an oversight or they actually have a lower grade on him.

 

Many people are still listing him as an OF; that’s probably why he’s left off the positional lists.

 

Spring training invites released; non-40-man invites:

C: Fedorowicz, Ritchie, Stubbs
IF: Mayfield, Cesar, Tanielu
OF: Garcia, Kemmer, Ferguson, Tucker, Straw
RHP: Armenteros, Thornton, Hauschild, Ferrell, Dorris, Ramsey, McCurry
LHP: Valdez

Biggest surprises were Tanielu and Cesar getting invited and Yordan Alvarez and Forrest Whitley being left out. But that’s likely just a function of numbers; not very many extra IF on the 40 man, plenty of good AAA bats and arms they want to look at.

Assuming no more moves, upper levels project to look like this:

MLB:
C: McCann, Stassi, Gattis
IF: Gurriel, Altuve, Correa, Bregman, Marwin
OF: Springer, Reddick, Marisnick, Fisher
SP: Verlander, Keuchel, Cole, McCullers, Morton
RP: McHugh, Peacock, Devenski, Sipp, Harris, Smith, Rondon, Giles
DFA: Gose
Suspension: Deetz

AAA:
C: Stubbs, Fedorowicz
IF: Reed, Kemp, Mayfield, Davis, White, Tanielu
OF: Ferguson, Kemmer, Garcia
SP: Martes, Paulino, Armenteros, Rodgers, Thornton
RP: Hauschild, Dorris, Valdez, Gustave, Guduan, Ferrell, Hoyt, Ramsey, McCurry
Released/Inactive: Emanuel, Sneed, Winkelman, Thome, Nunn
Suspension: Singleton

AA:
C: Ritchie, Quintana
IF: McCall, Birk, DeGoti, Cesar, Michelena
OF: Tucker, Straw, Alvarez, Dawson
SP: Whitley, Bostick, Quiala, C Perez, H Perez, Bailey, James, Adcock
RP: Dykxhoorn, Stutzman, Heredia, Thompson, Hernandez, Garza
Released/Inactive: Nunez, Hill

 

MLB.com releases their top 100 prospects tomorrow night with an hour-long show. Interestingly enough, while scrolling through YouTube I notice that MLB's YouTube channel has recently uploaded (by my count) 90 prospect videos in the past 2 hours or so. On top of that, the order of the uploaded videos would make you think it reflects their top 100 prospects rankings (Ohtani, Acuña, Guerrero Jr., Jimenez, Torres, Robles, Senzel, Whitley, Tatis Jr., and Kopech are the first ten uploads and would be a very realistic top 10 prospects).

Tucker was the 17th video uploaded so might he be their 17th rated prospected when they release their rankings tomorrow night?

Other interesting note, while there are only 90 uploads at the time of this post, there aren't videos of either Alvarez or Bukauskas. Granted, they could be ranked in the 91-100 range.

Maybe this is nothing, but maybe MLB showed their hand by uploading all these videos in a very realistic/believable order. Or maybe I'm longing for baseball to be back and I'm just looking to make something out of nothing.

 

Spoiler: Here You Go

8. Forrest Whitley, RHP, Houston Astros

Age: 20 ( 9/15/1997)

Bats: R | Throws: R

6-foot-7 | 195 pounds

Top level: Double-A | 2017 rank: 78

Whitley is the best pitching prospect in the minors right now, less than two years after the Astros took the San Antonio right-hander with the 16th pick in the 2016 draft. A soft-bodied kid with arm strength as a junior in high school, Whitley got his body in tremendous shape before his senior season started, showing a plus fastball, power breaking ball and improved command, although the general industry bias against high school right-handers -- especially those from Texas -- probably kept him out of the top 10.

Now 6-foot-7 and closer to 240 or so pounds than his listed weight, Whitley can flash four above-average pitches, with a plus fastball up to 97, helping him punch out 38 percent of batters he faced across three levels in his first full pro season. His changeup has progressed to the point that he was even better against lefties than against righties last year.

He turned 20 in September and has the risk that all young arms bring, especially those who throw this hard, but otherwise looks like an ace in the making.


21. Kyle Tucker, OF, Houston Astros

Age: 21 (1/17/1997)

Bats: L | Throws: R

6-foot-4 | 190 pounds

Top level: Double-A | 2017 rank: 57

Tucker was the Astros' second first-round pick in 2015, taken three picks after Alex Bregman, and has already had success in Double-A before his 21st birthday. Tucker was seen as a top-10 talent in his draft class because of his bat, both in his potential to hit for average and for power, which so far has not disappointed -- he hit 25 bombs across two levels in 2017, with a .379 OBP in high-A and a strikeout rate just a shade over 20 percent for the year.

His power output is surprising given how little Tucker has filled out his frame -- he looks as if he's still less than 200 pounds. He has excellent strength in his hands, which lets him drive the ball to all fields despite loading his hands well away from his body.

Tucker has played all over the outfield for the Astros and has made himself playable in center, showing more range in the Arizona Fall League than he ever had as an amateur. It still seems more likely he'll be pushed to a corner by a truly plus defender in center, but even in right field, he might still be a star because he projects to hit for average and power, get on base and have value on defense.

40. Yordan Alvarez, 1B, Houston Astros

Age: 21 (6/27/1997)

Bats: L | Throws: L

6-foot-5 | 225 pounds

Top level: high-A | 2017 rank: Unranked

Alvarez was originally signed by the Dodgers as an international free agent, but they traded him to Houston before he ever played a game in their system. Alvarez made his U.S. debut in 2017 in the Midwest League at age 20, hit .360/.468/.658 there before a late-June move up to high-A, where he continued to hit for some average after a brief adjustment period but didn't show the same power.

Alvarez is a big man with a fairly short swing for his size, showing more raw power in BP than in games. He can get long sometimes and wrap his bat, but most of the time, his game swings are shorter and more direct, without the huge finish he'll show in pregame. He has had no trouble at all with left-handed pitching so far at either level, and even when he wasn't hitting as well for Buies Creek he still rarely struck out. At 6-5, 225 pounds, he's big for anywhere but first base, but the Astros have tried him in left field in an attempt to add some versatility for whenever he's ready for the majors.

The swing and the plate discipline are already solid for a 20-year-old who hadn't played regularly in two years before last May, but it's the power upside that makes him a top-100 prospect.

74. J.B. Bukauskas, RHP, Houston

Age: 21 (10/11/1996)

Bats: R | Throws: R

6-foot | 196 pounds

Top level: Class A (Short) | 2017 rank: Not eligible

Bukauskas was one of the top college pitchers in the 2017 draft class and one of the youngest, having graduated early from high school to matriculate to North Carolina at age 17.

A 6-foot right-hander with a strong build, Bukauskas will touch 98 and pitch at 94-95 with a plus slider and some feel for a changeup that projects to above average. He showed above-average control and average command for most of his tenure as a Tar Heel but seemed to wear down a little before the draft, which might be how the Astros landed him at pick No. 15.

Bukauskas doesn't use his lower half much in his delivery, and his fastball can come in flat, leading to concerns that he'll end up in the bullpen or hurt rather than staying in the rotation. Houston seems ready to exhaust the latter possibility first, as he has as much pure stuff as other diminutive right-handers like Marcus Stroman and Sonny Gray did out of college, with a dominant relief role always there as a backup plan.

 

I find it interesting that nearly every prospect scouting report and prospect profile lists Whitley as nearly 240 pounds. Saw a tweet from him a couple weeks ago where he pointed out this very fact and mentioned that he's actually right around 195 pounds. If that's the case then the potential for him to add on some more meat over the years (I would have to imagine) will only help him become more durable and maybe even add a little extra juice to his fastball.

Here's his tweet...
[/spoiler]