The main issue with thus theory is that you can plan for when his arm is gonna go down. Had we made the playoffs in 2016 he wouldn't have been available, and he just made it back in the last week this season. If there was a guarantee 120 innings-3.00 ERA (with a midseason break) vs 200 innings-4.00 ERA, I would take the shorter more dominant guy. But the only seeming guarantee is that LMJ will miss significant time....at some point. That's a dangerous game of roulette. I tend to feel that if you told Archer just go out there for 5 innings as good as you can instead of pacing himself, his numbers would probably be better.
WAR takes into account longevity as well as performance. In the end, like most here, I’ll take guaranteed participation with a chance for excellence vs. possible excellence with only a chance of guaranteed participation. I also don’t think the metrics between archer and LMJ are as far apart as you think they are, other than the ability to stay healthy. And if it’s LMJ in bullpen for playoffs only vs Archer starting the entire year, the gap widens further. Lance needs to just stay healthy to allay most concerns with him.
Article about Collin McHugh. https://sodomojo.com/2018/02/12/seattle-mariners-collin-mchugh-possible/
McHugh for Lewis and White. Move White back to catcher and have him as the catcher of the future. Flip Lewis with Martes, Davis, and Stassi to Miami for Realmuto.
Probably gonna have to be one or the other. Unless you add a top 20 prospect with McHugh. I would like Pazos for McHugh
If things stay as they are, Houston may be in the market for a bat, maybe even 2. How about this as a long shot trade idea: Astros get: OF Nick Castellanos 1B Miguel Cabrera $80M Tigers get: 1B AJ Reed OF Drew Ferguson Miggy looks beat, but give him a fresh start and lineup support and maybe he finds new life. If not, giving up a couple of fringy prospects and only taking on ~$15M/yr is pretty low risk. Castellanos is a legit middle of the order bat who has another year of control and can play multiple positions as well as DH.
Cabrera just turned 36. Paying a guy 15 million per year for his age 36-40 seasons who has already shown significant signs of decline is most certainly not low risk. Castellanos is a decent hitter, and a catastrophe in the field. Not nearly valuable enough to assume Cabrera's salary. If the Astros are looking to upgrade the LF/DH position, they can do so much, much cheaper.
$15M is what they paid Beltran. It’s not going to break the bank. Castellanos is not that bad of a defender in the corner OF. He is likely to get better in the outfield as he plays there more consistently.
Collin McHugh and Tony Sipp really have to be moved for Prospects, Clear Salary. Hard throwing Lefty Reliever is a huge must hav, we need two lefties in the pen.
Tony Sipp has zero trade value. You would have to eat salary and give up a prospect just to get rid of him.
Out of curiosity, why in the hell would Detroit ever do that? You really don't think they could find something better? Reed + Ferguson has what kind of trade value, a middle reliever?
Would be the first call id make if I was Jeff Luhnow. LF is still a concern. Im about over Marisnick as anything beyond having value as a late inning defensive replacement and pinch runner..but Fisher is just as effective, if not a better hitter with a bigger window to his prime years. Marwin is enough if/when he starts to hit and I guess Kyle Tucker still could be a callup in a few months. Closer, possibly another bullpen upgrade and LF.
Not sure how available Brad Hand is going to be. The Padres just invested all that money with Hosmer and they extended Hand for 3 more seasons after this year.
Obviously valuing Cabrera is really tough. He is old and between last season and so far this season, it’s easy to draw the conclusion he’s declining rapidly. And he’s owed a TON of money. Then again, he’s one of the best hitters of the generation and was a superstar as recently as 2016. Detroit is rebuilding and aside from being a fan favorite he does them no good. The number of teams who might be even remotely interested in taking on Miggy are small (if they even exist). Dumping 1/2 Cabrera’s salary and getting anything in return would be considered a win for Detroit by a lot of people.
