Seems like right now - in his prime, after an MVP season and a World Series - is basically the worst possible time to negotiate an extension with Altuve if you're the Astros.
Altuve's camp would scoff, possibly be downright insulted by an offer like that. Not only is it far too short, 27/yr is probably an undervalue. Sure the extra money on the front end would be much appreciated, but to sign a contract that runs through 34 would be almost be a worst possible end date for a player. At that age he wont get any extensive offers. The only type of deals he would likely consider are very short, or very long. 3/50 to get one extra year of control, or something like 8/180, even those offers likely don't get a signature. His value isn't likely to get much higher than it is right now, so I doubt the Astros are doing much talking.
First, I don't think it's accurate to say Altuve won't net at least 6y/120mm because of this off-season. Sure, that's a nice piece of change, but Altuve will fetch more than that on the open market. 2017 lacked any player comparable in impact, risk, really all factors considered, to a player like Jose. Now, next off-season will be telling, with headliners like Harper, Machado and Kershaw, and a solid crop of stars like Donaldson, Blackmon, Kimbrel, etc. Altuve's pros and cons aside, I think he's on pace to net a contract with a floor around Hayward (8y/184mm, 23mm avg), and a ceiling (read: CEILING) around Scherzer (7y/210mm, 30mm avg) or Pujols/Cano (10y/240mm). If I had to guess, any Altuve extension will occur once some of next year's dust has settled. I believe that Crane is ready (and will) keep Jose around 275mm, but is waiting to see if he can get a better deal. The gravy-train has slowed because teams are no longer foolish enough to spend crazy amounts on Tier 2 and Tier 3 stars. Yeah...the days of paying Jordan Zimmermanns (5y/110), Chris Davis' (7y/160), Cuetos (6y/130) are probably in the past for the Union. But Jose does not fit in that category. Now, Marwin, Kuechel, and even Springer may face the realities of the market a bit harsher than Jose, but that's another story.
But when he’s locked into a worse than arbitration level deal, for 2 more years, and the Astros are looking for any sort of backdoor in the neogitiation for his free agent years... there is a potential mutual pathway interest. Nobody said it was going to be cheap, however. But they may get more production/$ now vs what they get from him 2 years from now (if they intend on trying to keep him... if they’re not going to try, none of this matters).
I see what you're saying, but the only way the Astros really benefit from an extension now is getting him to take a discount from his current market value (sky high) using the "who knows what might happen over the next two years, so sign for a little less now" argument. I think it could work if Altuve hadn't already signed his current trade-money-for-security deal with the Astros, but I can't see him doing that again.
I expect the Astros to lose Altuve. I think Alex Bregman is the starting 2B for this team in 2020. Altuve is a Boras client. There will be no discounts. If you want to sign him early you have to overpay. Otherwise, he hits the market and we probably lose him to a "big" market team. The price for good playerd is down but not for stars. Watch what Harper gets next winter. The Cano contract is relevant. 240 million over 10 years at age 31 and that contract will be 5-6 years old when Altuve is a free agent. I think 240 million over 8 years is in the ballpark for Altuve.
They'd still likely have to money up big money for his free agent eligible years... but giving him a substantial raise over these next 2 ultra cheap years should be nothing to scoff at from either party. The Angels were able to do a similar deal with Mike Trout, who still is likely worth more than Altuve. A 4-5 year deal now would give him more big-time money now... still give him the opportunity to test free agency (or sign another extension) within prime years... and give the Astros more years of control during his prime years. OR.... he can play out the string getting paid basically nothing for 2 more years, and its unclear where both sides will be 2 years from now in regards to what they want to do (Astros may want to keep him, but unlikely to want to be overpaying for below prime years late in career... and Altuve may just be looking for biggest payday/years possible). I'd start at 20 million/year for the 2 remaining cheap years... and 30 million/year for 2-3 years after that. A 5 year $140 million dollar deal wouldn't move the needle some?
Devenski cannot keep falling off to the left. 2nd half of last season...no bueno. Drive at the plate.
I've never understood with Lidge/Giles/Wagner FB/Slider types... after you get them set up and leaning out over the plate, why would you not just bust them (not hit but...) all up in their hands with a fastball? Twice, just to keep 'em honest and put the fear of god into 'em. It makes the slider that much more fun.
Lidge and Giles have different sort of sliders than Wagner had. There's is almost more like a changeup... with an almost 90 degree drop straight down late in the zone.... whereas Wagner had a Randy Johnson sweeping slider type. Hitters weren't leaning too much against them. If you're facing the Lidge/Giles type, and they're on... you're basically in a guessing game. Taking the first pitch or two to hope he throws a slider (that breaks out of the zone). If you get behind, you're all but done (barring the pitcher throwing an asinine mistake pitch, or getting wild). I thought Giles did a much better job of fastball placement in the regular season (much more improved from 2016). You could tell it was a point of emphasis between him and McCann, as was getting first pitch strikes with the slider (which usually was a very hittable pitch, but again... hitters taking/guessing).
If the Astros were willing to pay Altuve 42.5 million a year for a three year extension, I don't think they have to worry about re-signing Altuve if they don't get an extension. Altuve probably only has one big free agent contract in him and maybe another much smaller one. While I wouldn't turn down that contract, players generally go for the most guaranteed money once they get close to free agency. I highly doubt he accepts anything that gives him less than 5 years after when he would hit free agency. There is very little reason (other than playing it safe which he is unlikely to do) Altuve would let the Astros get all his good years without taking some risk on some of the years that are likely on his decline.
