Orioles interested in McHugh. They actually have quite a few good lefty pitching prospects. Any 2 of DL Hall, Tanner Scott, Keegan Akin, Zach Lowther, Cameron Bishop, Alex Wells, or Chris Lee would be a decent return for McHugh.
I wonder if the O's would consider trading Mychal Givens and if so, who the Astros would have to send them in addition to McHugh. Givens is a righty but he kept LHB to a .183 batting average last year and he has the stamina to get 4 to 6 outs when needed. It would almost be like having two Devenskis in the pen. Astros would get 4 years of Givens and O's would get 2 years of McHugh. If it wouldn't work straight up, I wonder if they would take McHugh plus a reliever to take Givens' place. Perhaps Hoyt, Paulino, or Rodgers. Sipp would need to be released if we got Givens so maybe the would be part of the deal.
The O's are pretty weak at 3B... I think their plan is to run Tim Beckham out there in 2018. If they feel 3B is an area they want to strengthen at the ML level this year, JD Davis might interest them.
Not sure if Adam Jones might be a player who comes up in the trade discussions. I believe he's owed around $12 million this season, which is the last year of his contract. He'd probably be good for 2.0 to 2.5 WAR and OPS+ of around 110. Could help Marisnick hold down LF this season while we wait for K Tuck to be ready for the Show. Also, Jones tends to do better against RHP whereas Marisnick for his career has fared better against LHP. So it would be a complementary platoon that wouldn't force a situation where Fisher has to dramatically improve at the plate in order for the team to not have a hole in in the OF. Jones has been in 3 postseason campaigns so that would be a plus too. Given the money Jones is owed this year, the trade may only be fair if the O's include a prospect or two like Hill or Scott.
Trading with the Orioles is pretty difficult. The owner Peter Angelos is notoriously fickle and typically doesn't make a ton of obvious tear down trades. I definitely don't see him see trading one of his franchise guys away for anything other than a consensus win. He'd have to get a large return back to trade Jones plus a prospect.
That trade would be a no-brainer. We all love McCullers, but it's obvious that Archer is the superior pitcher.
Archer is clearly the healthier pitcher and arguably the more consistent pitcher, but he is no way clearly a *better* pitcher. Archer has had an ERA over 4.00 each of the last 2 years. He's largely living off the afterglow of his 2015 season at this point. He also older and more expensive than McCullers.
But if McCullers can't stay healthy... in any role... what else really matters? To me, this year is pseudo make/break for LMJ and his long-term viability as a starter. Some arms just can't handle the work-load, and its not a sure-fire guarantee that putting him in a bullpen role extends that arm.
Archer hasn't been dominant the last 2 years. Since he came into the league, I would say LMJ has been a better pitcher, by a comfortable margin, when he is actually on the mound. His availability has been suspect to say the least, and the single most important ability in all of sports is availability. So Archer
I would argue how good you are when healthy matters. Fiers stays healthy and eats up lots of innings, but I don't think anyone here would trade McCullers for Fiers, so other things do matter.
Archer pitched great (ERA 3.65, FIP 3.27) for ~300 innings (nearly LMJ's career innings pitched) from the all star break in 2016 and before he had forearm tightness in September 2017. While I love LMJ, I think the impression that Archer hasn't been great since 2015 is misleading. Edit: Archer's ERA gets punished as he pitches deep into games. Prior to his injury and playing through it, Archer was rocking a 2.77 ERA 1st two times through the order last season. I think I could live with a healthy Archer on the Astros.
Sure... but the Astros don't know if he's going to be healthy, and I don't think any team truly knows how to keep an injury-prone pitcher healthy (i.e. - days of trying to "save" him in the bullpen haven't necessarily reduced injury risk). Every year LMJ lands on the DL at least once, his potential overall value goes down. But like I said earlier, I highly doubt they do anything with him going into the season, and they're going to give him a chance to see if he finally stays healthy. Also, Fiers isn't as good of a pitcher as Archer is... even if Archer hasn't performed as well as he did in previous years. There's also something to be said about the Astros coaching staff, and the improved results they've gotten out of nearly every pitcher they've acquired from elsewhere... and what they could do with any plus arm that's healthy.
Certainly - but that's where other things matter. Is 180 innings of Archer at 4.00 ERA better than, say, 100 innings of McCullers at 3.00 ERA (obviously making up numbers)? To some extent, the rest of the team matters as well. In the Astros' case, we have an insane amount of pitching depth - the 100 innings of McCullers being injured can easily be filled by a 4.00 ERA type McHugh. On another team that has to go throw out some minor league scrub, the equation is very different. For a team like the Astros, where a McCullers midseason injury is really not a big deal, I'd argue that an an elite McCullers for the playoffs is more valuable than a good Archer all season long. With Verlander, Keuchel, Cole and Morton, you *could* be talking about your #4 or #5 starter anyway (obviously some of those guys have their own questionmarks). That said, as JoeJoe said, maybe Archer's really better than his ERA. But given the price and age of McCullers, I think you could make an argument either way.