The Chandler Parsons contract proves my prediction that moneyball would end in failure

INTRODUCTION

In my groundbreaking 2010 essay titled "Ahead of the Curve," I brilliantly predicted that Moneyball would end with the exact type of spectacular failure that Daryl Morey's blunders have inflicted on the Rockets over this offseason:

Chandler Parsons is the proof in the pudding: a formerly underpaid role player who now cannot be resigned without paying drastically above his true value and giving him a ridiculous max contract. The problem I pointed out years ago (and Morey has no excuse because my work was published and I was open in my willingness to share my knowledge with the team) is that assets deteriorate faster than he can accumulate them by scrabbling about setting up a 6 team trade to try to squeeze an extra second rounder.

PART I: ASSET DETERIORATION

We all know how Morey "accumulates" assets so there is no need to discuss that. Instead I will talk about asset deterioration. Chandler Parsons is a perfect example. Last year he was a fantastic "asset" who could have netted us a top player, but Morey refused to pull the trigger. Now because of Morey's poor judgment, his value is destroyed: the valuable final year of his drastically below market contract was lost for nothing, and the Rockets can now choose between overpaying him (making him a negative value asset similar to Jeremy Lin) or losing him for nothing.

Assets deteriorate in other ways beyond "cheap" players having to be overpaid. For example, sometimes they can be lost for no good reason (as when wasting draft picks to unnecessarily trade Lin), or sometimes a player expected to be an asset that you give up an asset to get does not pan out (Terrence Williams, Royce White, Joey Dorsey, etc.). Similarly, Dwight Howard's contract will continue to increase as his production drops slightly, another way an asset deteriorates. Dwight Howard could also leave in free agency for nothing at the end of his contract, yet another type of asset loss. The point of all this is that Morey's method of making tiny, incremental moves to collect assets is pointless because the assets go bad at a rate too fast to build a title contender that way. In other words, Moneyball is a failure.

PART II: ASSET ACCUMULATION BEST PRACTICES

How do teams accumulate assets fast enough to win the title then? Rather than wasting their time on needlessly complex machinations, they pay attention to the big picture, hire a quality coach, and run a top flight organization that players want to play for and be loyal to. Championship teams are built with team building and asset windfalls.

Team Building

This is the approach used by the Spurs and old Pistons. Run a top organization, retain your players for a long time, develop them, and build chemistry. This approach can even result in asset windfalls as players accept contracts below value to stay with the team (See: Duncan, Dirk, etc.). Unfortunately, this is the exact opposite of the Rockets approach. Players are somewhat more reluctant to sign here because they know they might not stay here. Our coach needs no discussion. We do not develop players and chemistry over the long term. Instead, we ship out useful young players because we do not want to pay them anything above a pittance or make them a reasonable deal(Dragic, Patterson, Hill, etc.). In many instances, we later want these players back even though there was no reason to dump them in the first place!

Asset Windfalls

Asset windfalls typically occur through free agency or the draft. The two most valuable assets in the NBA are a superstar player on a rookie contract, or a max player who plays far above his max contract. These are the two primary ways to obtain an asset that is not determined by market price. The Heat, despite being asset poor, were able to instantly create a superteam due to an asset windfall. The Cavs became contenders both ways: initially Lebron's rookie contract and later due to the windfall of his return in free agency. The biggest boost to the Rockets fortunes was not years of silly pennywise Morey deals, it was getting Dwight Howard to come to Houston without giving up other assets. Unfortunately this offseason, we have witnessed the cost of running a poor organization that players do not want to sign with. Our target free agents spurned and even trolled us, and other GMs attempted to damage our cap space because they dislike Morey.

CONCLUSION

For all of Morey's wheeling and dealing, he has accomplished nothing of note. The team is not a title contender, nor does it have a realistic path to contention. The team is not substantially better than what Morey started with: the Yao-Tmac duo that won 52, 55, and 53 games. Last year we won 54 games, and may be worse this year. In other words, Moneyball is a complete failure. As a true Rockets fan, I very regretfully say "I told you so."