Rockets Luncheon with Daryl Morey

Sorry I posted this in the wrong thread, I was meant to post it here.

Morey mentioned he is going after Dwight Howard and Chris Paul so plugged all the calculations into an excel spreadsheet to see how this might be possible. Here's what I came up with...


How it possible to get both Chris Paul & Dwight Howard

The bigger fish (Dwight Howard) will be hooked first. All indications are that Houston will use cap room to sign Dwight outright. Before that can happen, Houston will have to free up the cap room to sign Dwight to a max first year amount of $20,513,178.

The cap has been estimated to be somewhere in the region of $58,455,000 (current) to $65,000,000. The latest opinion from capologist Larry Coon predicts the cap to be around $60m http://www.hoopsworld.com/nba-salary...rry-coon-52413

Let's work with a conservative salary cap estimate of $60 million.

Houston cap room after waiving Garcia, Delfino, Brooks and Anderson

01) Harden 13,668,750
02) Asik 8,374,646
03) Lin 8,374,646
04) Robinson 3,526,440
05) White 1,719,480
06) Jones 1,551,840
07) Montiejunas 1,422,720
08) Parsons 926,500
09) G.Smith 884,293
10) Beverley 788,872
11) Cap Hold 490,180
12) 2nd Rounder 0
*Honeycut 100,000

Total = 41,828,367
Cap room = 18,171,633
Need to free extra 2,341,545 to give Dwight the max.

*Honeycut has been waived but has a partial guarantee for 2013/14.

How to free cap room to offer Howard the max

Trade Robinson + White + $2,000,000 (cover White's contract) to ??? for future first round pick = $5,245,920

Cap hit with Howard onboard

01) Harden 13,668,750
02) Asik 8,374,646
03) Lin 8,374,646
04) Howard 20,513,178
05) Cap Hold 490,180
06) Jones 1,551,840
07) Montiejunas 1,422,720
08) Parsons 926,500
09) G.Smith 884,293
10) Beverley 788,872
11) Cap Hold 490,180
12) 2nd Rounder 0
*Honeycut 100,000

Total = $57,585,805

Trade for Chris Paul

Chris Paul max contract is worth $19,136,250
This is difficult because we cannot sign Chris Paul without a Sign and Trade with the Clippers and there is no incentive for the Clippers to help us.

Trade:
Asik + Lin = $16,749,292
Chris Paul = $19,136,250

Cap Hit with Chris Paul onboard

01) Harden 13,668,750
02) Paul 19,136,250
03) Cap Hold 490,180
04) Howard 20,513,178
05) Cap Hold 490,180
06) Jones 1,551,840
07) Montiejunas 1,422,720
08) Parsons 926,500
09) G.Smith 884,293
10) Beverley 788,872
11) Cap Hold 490,180
12) 2nd Rounder 0
*Honeycut 100,000

Total = $60,462,943

Filling out the roster with role players

Hopefully we can use the room exception 2.6m to sign either Garcia or Delfino back. I prefer Garcia if he's willing to come back for 2.6m.

Vet min. exception to bring back Brooks at $1,352,181

Second Rounder should be a SG/SF swingman maybe on a similar contract to Beverley at $788,872

Same with Aldemir from Turkey $788,872

Final Roster

01) Harden 13,668,750
02) Paul 19,136,250
03) Brooks 1,352,181
04) Howard 20,513,178
05) Garcia 2,600,000
06) Jones 1,551,840
07) Montiejunas 1,422,720
08) Parsons 926,500
09) G.Smith 884,293
10) Beverley 788,872
11) Aldemir 788,872
12) 2nd Rounder (SG/SF) 788,872
*Honeycut 100,000

Total = $64,522,328

Depth Chart

Paul / Beverley / Brooks
Harden / Garcia / 2nd Rounder
Parsons / Garcia / 2nd Rounder
Jones / Montiejunas / Aldemir
Howard / G.Smith

That is a reasonable team that could go far.
Unfortunately, I really doubt we can pull off the sign and trade to get Paul
Moreover I think he's going to stay with the Clippers and get the extra year max because of his knees.

Another problem with this scenario is what team would trade with us for Robinson + White + $2m for a future first round pick?

 

Excellent. Please don't forget to rep the OP.

Really glad to hear the strategy loud and clear: either we get people who turn us into contenders, or we bring the whole team back and try again next summer.

Glad to hear T-Rob is working hard. He's going to make it. His defense looked promising and, given what we ask of our PF's, he was excellent on the boards. Although Keith Smart is poorly regarded, here is an excerpt from an article about his FG% at the rim when he was on the Kings:

The guy is strong, athletic, a decent defender and an excellent rebounder. If he is a hard worker, then he will improve his shot and he could end up being a quality starter. Not too different than Asik, who was able to improve his offensive game with hard work while focusing on his core competencies.

 

I'd say Cleveland would give up a first round pick for Robinson and White. Also, as part of that trade you would pick up a trade exception for $3,526,440
+ $1,719,480 = $5,245,920. Could that trade exception be used for bringing in CP3 without giving up Lin or Asik? I don't know, but it is interesting.

 

Turns out that trade exception wouldn't be enough based on the CBA rules of:
Non-Taxpaying Teams
Outgoing salary Maximum incoming salary
$0 to $9.8 million 150% of the outgoing salary, plus $100,0001
$9.8 million to $19.6 million The outgoing salary plus $5 million1
$19.6 million and up 125% of the outgoing salary, plus $100,000

The Rockets would have to include another player Lin+Trade Exception+DMo works I believe.

 

Oh, I didn't know it worked like that.

I went on non-tax payer team can receive 150% of salary coming back which would mean we had to send out a minimum of $12,757,500.

Either way I don't think Clippers would do it for Lin and D-Mo let alone Lin and Asik. I think the chances of Chris Paul joining Howard is very remote.

 

Add some draft picks and the clippers might be more interested.

Also, dont underestimate the bad ownership of Donald Sterling wanting the marketability of Jeremy Lin alongside Griffin. I think he is more interested in money than winning.

Also if CP3 wants out he has plenty of cards he can play so it would be in the teams best interest to play ball.

 

comfirmation Morey ain't bout dis mediocre lyfe

 

Thanks for insight, repped. I remember this past year, Morey said he wasn't going to do anything on the trading deadline, we ended up trading 4 players. It is great to hear that he has the ultimate plan, but I still think any combo with CP3 is not a reality. Think about this, there are no CP3 rumors, but a lot of Dwight rumors.

 

In fact, I've only heard stories that he's staying with the Clippers.

Sterling actually said Del Negro was let go to appease Chris Paul and he also claimed afterward he was confident Chris Paul was resigning.

Some rumours say Chris Paul is actually calling the shots in Clipperland as to who's going to be the next coach and player movements... etc.

 

hadn't thought of this but damn, Morey/Hinkie are brilliant, so much flexibility even if we sign a max player this summer, when Asik/Lin come off the books we can either resign them or go after someone else like Love/Aldridge

 

Ditto.

 

Hey, Big Shot Bob - - Thanks for making the big shot Post!

 

OP great stuff!! Thanks for posting. This could be a great offseason, definitely the most anticipated in some time.

So going for Howard almost a given, but Both Paul and Howard targets. Reading between the lines, he'd like to have both, is going for both, but will be difficult.

Morey has set the Rockets up in great position to be successful, exciting times. Let's hope he can land at least one more big fish. I'm just as excited to see how Morey will construct the team around multiple stars.

 

You cannot combine a trade exception with other players or exceptions to make salaries match in trades.

The trade exception can only be used in trades to bring back one or more players making, in the aggregate, no more than $100,000 more than the amount of the trade exception (i.e., 100% + $100,000 salary matching rules).

 

Interesting take there, one I think is an option. However, you missed the guy who would fit that bill better than any (somewhere, for sure) and that is Bynum. Will Bynum do a 1-year contract to reestablish himself as max-worthy? Or should I have said, 'Will Andrew Bynum...'

 

I just think its Howard or bust. Chris Paul is no leaving LAC. Not when they let go of a coach to appease him and are practically giving him control of roster moves.

They are contenders for sure.

 

Thanks for sharing.

 

LeBron had complete control over Cleveland's roster moves, and they fired Mike Brown in late May 2010 -- the exact same timetable as Del Negro's dismissal this year.

I'd be surprised if Paul leaves LA, mostly because I think he loves the city and the "extra year" is important to a smaller player with a history of leg injuries. But the idea that he'll stay due to loyalty and/or control is nonsense. He wants to win, and if he feels he can't in LA, the idea that giving him control and/or a coach he likes will change that is silly.

Also, they are most certainly NOT contenders at the moment. They lost in the first round, 4-2, and were embarrassed in four consecutive games by Memphis. Swept a year ago by San Antonio. They have one true go-to option (Paul) and are capped out for the foreseeable future. How do they get to the next level?

 

Would you hire Chris Paul as your GM? Sure you may want him as your pg, but if you don't want him as your GM, your supporting roster will likely end up being crappy heading down that road.