2012 Fantasy Football - Sleepers/Busts/Strategies/etc

Helu: I wouldn't trust him much at all. Evan Royster is making a real push for the job, Helu keeps getting dinged up...and we're talking about Shanahan of all people. You'll never know who will get the call until after kickoff.

My general strategy is to focus on QBs and WRs these days. The RB position is all but dead. It's simple: get me the points. Don't care what position it comes from. If the serious studs are gone, don't waste your time grabbing someone you know will be 5 ppg. Find a stud at a different position or start gambling on young guys with potential. At worst, they'll be waiver wire cuts just like the worthless bench guys. There's no justification for taking a Nate Burleson - take Brazill from the Colts at that point.

You also don't "need" to shore up your bench (QB, RB, WR, TE) unless your league as position caps. I ended up with 3 QBs (only 4 WRs) because I had a the opportunity to snag Luck AND RGIII for my bench. Keeper league - and I just locked up both and locked out the rest of my league. One of them should explode, and I hedged my bets to be sure I'd have him. Again, how is a crummy WR like Kevin Walter or Jason Avant a better move? Studs win leagues, not bench guys.

There's only a tiny handful of sure bets on defense, once they're gone, wait until round 13-14 and make your pick based off of the schedule. It usually takes 4 weeks before people catch on to the newest surprise DST beast (last year's 49ers), and if you are serious about winning you'll end up with two for matchup reasons.

 

Agree with the QB/WR thing but WR is deep now. Several WR2's put up WR1 numbers. And it's not just in PPR leagues nowadays. So grabbing a stud RB early can payoff when you have guys like Dwayne Bowe going in the 7th round.

Agree with everything you said about defense. The top D's are great to have but they always fly off the board too early. Surprise D's and playing matchups allows you to invest in sleepers.

 

WRs are very deep this year, but defense I can't justify taking San Fran so high when you could get Buffalo off the scrap heap.

 

Absolutely yes...so long as stud RB is a stud. Once it slips to guys like DeMarco Murray and Trent Richardson....I would rather get an explosive scorer at WR. No sense in scrapping the barrel at one position when there are big point producers on the board elsewhere.

I had Chris Johnson early, and still got Cedric Benson late (12th round). He's not flashy, but he's still the starting guy on an offense that will rack up yards and TDs. I'll happily take that next to 3 strong starters at WR.

So high? Personally, I took the Pats in the 13th round. I don't totally trust the Niners anyway. Texans though? I would have taken them around 11th. There's only ~3 each year, but the juggernaughts are always worth it. The scrap heap is too dependent on matchups.

 

What are you guys thoughts on my latest draft?

QB: Ben Roethlisburger
RB: Ray Rice
RB: J. Charles
WR: Jordy Nelson
WR: M. Colston
WR: M. Austin
Flex: Doug Martin
TE: Owen Daniels
Bench: Stevie Johnson
Bench: Michael Floyd
Bench: Andy Dalton
Bench: Johnathon Stewart
Bench: Mike Leshoure
Bench: Jaczuizz Rodgers
Bench: James Starks

K: J Kasay
DEF: Arizona

12 man league, had 2nd pick.

 

This team is very terrible in my opinion. You've got 5 guys on the team with no real resume what they can do:

Starks
Rodgers
Leshoure
Floyd
Martin

Another coming off major injury: Charles.

Then you went the Ben route in a year where it is pretty apparent that you need a top 5 qb.

This team isn't too good.

 

Lol, ouch. And this is my church league, which is more casual so it's all good. And reason for my weak bench is that live draft took to long, so the last 5 rounds were skipped and we just had to pickup up 5 free agents when it opened, but I missed it. And honestly, Martin, Floyd, Leshoure, and Rodgers may all be flops but at least one could be a breakout player. Better then having Nate Washington and Mario Manningham rot on my bench.

Also I still don't care about the notion of getting QB's early, I will never get one in the early rounds. I think my starting receivers and running backs could be great, especially if Martin has a breakout year like so many are predicting.

 

I like the Doug Martin pick actually.

I reached for him in round 3 in one of my drafts. He will be able to give you yards on the ground and out of the backfield.

 

Yeah, and I got him like round 6 or 7.

 

somebody sell me on cj2k having a monster bounceback year.

 

He's had a full camp back, and the Titans passing game is going to thrive, opening up the running lanes when safeties have to stay back to account for Kendall Wright.

 

All I know is Tennessee can make some blocks.

 

My thoughts:

QB: you could stand an upgrade here. Pittsburgh is trying to go away from the previous offensive scheme, in which Roethlisberger strong-armed a pass heavy gameplan (a lot of times, throwing way too much). Add in the Wallace hold out and Roethlisberger's shoulder issue and I think there's reason to be concerned. Don't be shocked if Dalton ends up being a better producer.

RB: Fantastic starters. I agree your bench is iffy, but so what - you only need to tap into them twice unless there is a serious injury (which there's no saving things if a Ray Rice goes down). You can dump Starks now - he's a wasted pick. The other 3 will be a longshot to give you you significant points unless there's an injury to the starter in front of them. I'd make a play for any starter still available on the waiver wire if I were you. Rashard Jennings is a guy that might have slipped under the radar - he's not a stud, but he may inherit the full time load in JAX.

WR: Love them. You've got 4 very strong guys.

Flex: Trendy pick. Should be fine.

K: doesn't have a broken leg, so that's fine.

D: I would honestly consider replacing Starks with a second defense if I were you. Unless you have one of the 3 teams that are going to slam opponents every week, it's a better strategy to focus on matchups. This is an unusual category where the opponent can often matter more than the actual "player". Personally, I'm high on NE as a sleeper - easy schedule, and they invested heavily on defense in the draft. They were a joke last year, but that can turn around in a flash. There's always a shocking surprise DST juggernaught, like SF or HOU was last year.

 

I actually like the entire Titans squad this year, including Jake Locker. That guy is gonna be a pretty big sleeper off the waiver wire this year, believe you me.

Their receiving corps is finally solid with Wright, Washington, Britt (maybe), and Cooke starting a full season.

CJ2K is going to have a solid season imo.

 

So I'm in a league that has 2 keepers from season to season. Was planning on those two being Brady and MJD, but with the ongoing holdout of Jones-Drew, would it possibly make more sense to keep Jordy Nelson, Desean Jackson, Michael Bush or Ryan Mathews?

 

Out of those Nelson seems like the safest bet, but with RB being thin this year I would consider Mathews.

 

No.

His O-Line sucks. He doesn't hit the holes like he used to in years past. He doesn't try to make something out of nothing like he used to in order to break a run. He got paid and he's not hungry anymore. He cares more about his crappy record company than playing football. There's zero effort from him. I took CJ2YPC with my number 1 pick last year in 2 drafts. I traded the bum for Shonn Greene in one league and Jackie ****ing Battle in aother league. Yes.. he was THAT BAD. Never again CJ. Never ever again.

This commercial was made to be funny and prior to CJ's horrendous season last year. It's not funny when CJ actually sucks or maybe it is.


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O-line isn't bad at all.

 

Try to holdout your keeper deadline as long as possible until this MJD thing gets sorted out. Nelson could have another great year, and Mathews is a top 10 back but will miss the first 3-4 games or so.

 

You're right.. it's probably not as bad as CJ is making it out to be. If the O-line blocks and creates the slightest bit of day light he should burst through the hole. Instead he doesn't thus it makes the line look bad when in actuality it's CJ. If he was injured last year it would be one thing but he was perfectly healthy and he didn't make it happen. So far this pre-season it looks to be more of the same. I realize it's just pre-season but he shows zero interest. I'll let somebody else take him in the first round and let them deal with the headaches of CJ.

Last year he rushed for 100+ yards just 4 times. Check out some of his game logs. http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/11258/chris-johnson
Nasty stuff there.