How Lin fits Houston's plan

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http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/8168248/jeremy-lin-dwight-howard-push-houston-rockets-playoffs-nba

For five years now, Houston Rockets general manager Daryl Morey has been a canary in the coal mine for the basketball analytical community. He's the first of his kind, really, as someone who rose through the front office ranks to become a decision-maker for an NBA franchise based on a background rich in analytical acumen. Statistically-oriented hoops fans all over the world have erected little Daryl Morey shrines next to their spreadsheet-addled laptops.

When Morey took over as Houston's general manager on May 10, 2007, it was heralded as the beginning of the Moneyball age in the NBA, an evolution that would re-shape how the league operates. Teams are now using advanced metrics and data in more innovative ways than ever, and an affinity for numbers is becoming an essential part of a basketball operations team. Morey was at the vanguard of this trend. He himself wrote in the Economist, "The basketball world today can be divided between a new wave of objective statistical techniques and traditional methods of visual observation."

Morey has used these methods to do a quality job in Houston, and he's been widely praised during his tenure despite dealing with injuries to franchise players in Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming. The Rockets have finished better than .500 in each of the three years since Yao was first injured, but they haven't made the playoffs. In fact, they've won just one playoff series since Morey took over as GM.

While Morey has built competitive teams with undervalued talent and remained flexible with Houston's finances, he hasn't been able to escape a general basketball truism: You can't win a championship without a surefire Hall of Famer leading the way (save for a couple of teams, like the '04 Pistons). In the Economist article, Morey wrote, "Looking to the past is indisputably the best way to shift the odds in a forecaster's favor."

He was referring to the surprising development of Jeremy Lin, but the same statement could be made about building a championship team. It's a lesson Morey seems to have taken to heart this summer.

Morey's offseason approach has confused some people, and it's not hard to understand the concern. In my offseason forecasting model, the Rockets started with a baseline projection of 38.8 wins and have since dropped to 27. The 11.8 projected wins the Rockets have lost during free agency is by far the most in the league, but it's because good players have fallen by the wayside in Morey's relentless quest for a star player, namely Dwight Howard.

Here's what's left: Kevin Martin (who has one year and $12.4 million left on his contract, making him highly fungible), European import Donatas Motiejunas (who has so far been impressive in the Las Vegas Summer League), three first-round picks from the most recent draft, two players on rookie contracts in Patrick Patterson and Marcus Morris and a whole slew of second-round picks and non-guaranteed contracts.

But unlike the New York Knicks, Morey recognized that his team was entering the territory of limited ceiling, and rather than consign the Rockets to Sisyphean-style mediocrity, he's taken steps to escape the middle class by pursuing Howard and now Lin. Since Howard would be Houston's new foundation, let's start with him before getting to Lin's impact.

Houston's new look

The Rockets' top three projected players if they trade for Howard and sign Lin.
Player

Min.

WARP

Salary
Dwight Howard

2,869

18.01

19,536,360
Jeremy Lin

2,752

9.33

5,000,000
Donatas Motiejunas

2,000

6.00

1,134,500

In an abstract sense, Morey can't offer the Orlando Magic fair value for Howard, but he can offer them the chance to rebuild since Houston's trade-friendly assets are plentiful. According to a Marc Stein and Chad Ford report, Morey is willing to send Martin, Patterson, Morris and Chandler Parsons along with some combination of this year's draft picks and future selections to Orlando. In doing so, Houston could take back as much as $47 million in 2012-13 salary from the Magic (but that figure would decrease if the Knicks don't match Lin's offer sheet). As Zach Lowe points out, that happens to be almost the exact combined salaries of Howard, Hedo Turkoglu, Chris Duhon, Glen Davis and Jason Richardson.

With Howard in the middle, finding cost-efficient supporting players could make a real difference. Let's take a stab at an initial Rockets rotation if Morey could pull off a Howard trade:

Centers: Howard, Josh Harrellson
Point guards: Toney Douglas, Duhon
Shooting guards: Richardson, Jeremy Lamb
Small forward: Turkoglu
Power forwards: Motiejunas, Davis

These nine players project to be about a 40-win team -- at a cost of about $53 million, or about $5 million under the cap -- though there is a clear hole at point guard and two pending situations that could change the look of the Rockets: The offer sheets to Lin and Omer Asik.

After a certain amount of silliness out in Vegas, the Knicks finally have an offer sheet in hand for Lin and are expected to use the entire three-day waiting period to decide whether to match it (Asik's offer sheet hasn't been signed, but that's a formality and a matter of timing).

The Lin-less Knicks

Projections for two new Knicks guards if Lin goes to Houston.
Player

Min.

WARP

Salary
Jason Kidd

2,461

6.85

3,000,000
Raymond Felton

2,502

3.88

3,300,000

It's been assumed that the Knicks would match Lin, but after Saturday's reported deal for New York to acquire Raymond Felton from the Portland Trail Blazers, suddenly that's no longer a given, which could be a huge get for the Rockets. Once we plug Lin into our forecast, Houston's projection suddenly jumps to more than 50 wins, and the Rockets could still add to the mix with cap exceptions and minimum-salaried veterans. This is where Morey's evaluative skills would come into play.

However, there's one possible problem with this scenario: If Houston gets Lin, Asik's presence would reduce the amount of salary the Rockets could take on, thus reducing the chances Magic GM Rob Hannigan pulls the trigger. Houston could involve a third team to absorb one of Orlando's bad contracts, but that might cost it another young asset or pick (or both).

Of course, Howard could also pout his way through the season and leave as a free agent next summer, and Hannigan could choose to deal with another team, thus leaving Morey with his skeletal roster. But the worst thing that happens is the Rockets are starting over, and in this case, they still escape the middle. And that risk pales in comparison to the upside of having Howard as the centerpiece of a team that could get back to the playoffs and potentially make a run.

While Morey's plan may seem risky now, it's time to stop scratching your head. Morey's gutsy pursuit of Howard and Lin is the only way to make a play for an NBA championship, and therefore it's the way Houston needs to go.

Bradford Doolittle is an author for Basketball Prospectus. Follow him on Twitter at @bbdoolittle.

 

Forgot to add ESPN to the post heading. Sorry about that.