Dwight Math, Scola Amnesty Edition

And then lose a chunk of that money in state taxes that don't exist in Tejas.

 

Now that it looks like our cap space will allow it:

How valuable a trade asset is the potential trade exception we can now give orlando in a dwight deal be?

I'm hoping it allows us to take back 1 less bad contract or keep 1 or more prospects in a deal.

Thoughts or corrections to my trade exception assumptions?

 

I'm a howard fan, but his flakiness bothers me a lot. Mcgrady wanted to come here and play, howard doesn't and has made it clear. He might get here and milk that back injury and the rockets are screwed big time. Even with orlando west, the rockets are a 5th seed. Howard skips to dallas,lotto pick gone, bloated contracts left on roster. I guess we will see.

 

One word: Defense

 

Hes a professional. He will play and play hard. He cares about that.

But he won't stay. He wants to play for a contender, and you can't force him to change his mind. He'll go somewhere but it won't be here.

People are kidding themselves. He is leaving Orlando because he doesn't see it being a contender. Now we are essentially taking the whole freaking Orlando team and it's going to be Orhouston. And Orhouston ain't any better than Orlando for Howard because it's the same freakin team!!!!

 

except that Orhouston is in the West. The West is usually tougher around the 5-8 playoff places

 

Well this is more positive definitely. If Howard leaves seems we will have cap space, and it seems even with the contracts and him staying we may have room to make a major signing.

But we will need 3 legit stars to be a contender and have a legit shot of getting out of the west. OKC is a powerful team and I don't see them having a let down next year.

Lin might be a good pick-up, but who is going to be that star SG who is going to hit the big shots when you need a score? That's what I want to know. Because neither Lin nor Howard are those types of players.

 

That's what I want to confirm. Is it true that if we get howard and he walks we would have room for 2 max signings? Want to make sure.

Whereas ORL if howard walks they will only have room for 1 max contract and would still have hedo and the bad contracts. Can someone confirm this please??

 

Two things:
1. I know you're smarter than this, Lou. Why are you still expounding the "Omg we'll trade everything for Howard and just become the Houston Magic!!!" crap? Even ESPN has acknowledged that that report was what Houston could theoretically offer and not what they will.
2. Where's that contending team Howard's going to walk to? And frankly, I think anyone who says "Dallas" has no clue what they're talking. The old Dallas team ultimately finished tied for eight last year. They're not a serious threat in my book.

 

Scola amnesty is official


http://www.nba.com/rockets/sites/rockets/files/media/release_scolaamnesty.pdf

 

Just a random idea/plan here. Im pretty sure the math adds up, would greatly appreciate if someone wanted to go step by step and either confirm or deny it for me. I think the Orlando part of this deal is feasible and generally in line with what we've been hearing. Ive got another leg of it that involves Josh Smith, and I think it would be a pretty good offer but I'm not really sure what Atlanta is looking for.


1. Amnesty Scola, Waive Fortson and Simpson,
2. Goran Dragic Sign and trade with 2014 Second Rounder for 10m TPE
3. Courtney Lee sign-and-trade for Rip Hamilton and Chicago 2013 First Rounder
4. Patrick Patterson into Brandon Bass TPE
5. Jerome Jordan into Brandon Bass TPE
6. Gary Forbes into Brandon Bass TPE along with cash considerations
7. Rights to Jeremy Lamb for Orlando 2013 Second Rounder Top 55 Protected.
8. Rights to Terrence Jones for 2014 Second Rounder Top 55 Protected.
9. Dwight Howard for Toronto First Rounder and 19.5m TPE
10. Jason Richardson for Dallas 1st Rounder and 5.8m TPE
11. Shaun Livingston for Chris Duhon
12. Kevin Martin, Royce White, Marcus Morris Chicago 2013 First Rounder ,2015 Rockets First Rounder and ’13 and ’15 Rockets Second Rounders for Josh Smith.


HOU IN: Dwight Howard, Josh Smith, Jason Richardson, Chris Duhon, Rip Hamilton
HOU OUT: Lee, Patterson, Lamb, Jones, White, Martin, Morris, Jordan, Forbes, Livingston and Picks

ORL IN : Patterson, Lamb, Jones, 2 First Rounders 2 huge TPEs and 3 Million Cash
ORL OUT: Howard, Richardson, Duhon
ATL IN: Martin, Royce White, Morris, 2 First rounders and 2 Second Rounders
ATL OUT: Josh Smith

Douglas/Machado/Duhon
Richardson/Hamilton
Parsons/Lueur
Smith/ Montijunas
Howard/Greg Smith


If you could agree to a buyout with Duhon and use stretch provision on Richardson after the season I think you could offer another Max Contract to a Free agent(CP3) but I'm really not certain I know its really close. After signing a big FA you could use Dragic TPE and Non Tax Payer MLE to add two more solid veteran role players. I would think those are both pretty good offers for each of the players but like i said I'm mostly hoping someone can check this math for me, Im not exactly a spread sheet wizard or cba expert.

 

Not signings per se as we need to first get a bunch of young talent in the door.

People gotta realize that it takes more than stars. The way you do it is you go young through the draft. Players give you 3 years where they don't make a whole lot. You clear cap. At the end of year 2 or 3, then you make you big signing and add two stars to hopefully the one you already have or at least the 2 or 3 good players you have.

 

Because that's what we are doing. Dwight won't walk via a FA signing - he will walk via sign n trade. All he has to do is refuse to re-sign with Houston and we'll cave and give him his sign-n-trade. So yeah, he can go to Dallas or L.A. or whatever. Because we will sign n trade him for Bynum probably.

Look, I have no problem with signing Howard.....after a year or two of tanking. Then you bring the guy in.

 

You know what really bugs me? I mean just eats away at me?

Is the fact that this crowd...this BBS. Ran T-mac out of town for being a malcontent and all. And now...here we are a few years later - just a handful of years later....dealing with another superstar who wants out of Orlando who has worn out his welcome.

Doesn't anyone sense history repeating itself? Do we want these stars that failed in their own cities to come here? Who lack the perseverance to fight and claw and win by climbing that mountain.

Howard is leaving an Orlando team begging him to stay. Willing to do anything. Nope, he won't even talk to the new president.

There's so much I don't like about this deal. I understand, you bring Dwight in, you bring Chris Paul in maybe, and they are going to be exciting, sell a lot of tickets, get us to the 2nd round...but these guys aren't champions. They aren't Durant, James, Kobe, Jordan, Olajuwon, Duncan. Howard is awesome defensively and a beast. But he has significant flaws to his game as well. His FT shooting. His disappearing in crunch time. He's not the big fundamental here.

I'd much rather us just start over. Reboot. Build from the ground up. Get players who are going to connect with the city of Houston at the age of 22. Make it their home. "grow-up" as professionals in this city. There's nothing like that.

Whom would you rather root for? A whiny guy that doesn't even want to be here, a guy who just wants to ball with his buds? Or a guy like K.D. Or Dirk. Or Duncan, Bird, Olajuwon, Malone, Miller, Ewing, Kobe, and so on.

I mean, just smells like T-mac 2 in so many ways. I think we're making a mistake.

 

So if my math is right -- factoring in all cap holds other than Dragic's -- the Rockets will have about $4.3M in cap room if the Knicks don't match Lin.

To sign Asik to his offer-sheet we then would either have to waive a bunch of non-guaranteed contracts (Livingston + three fully non-guaranteed guys or six fully non-guaranteed guys), renounce Lee's bird-rights or work on a sign&trade for Lee.
The last option would seem like the most logical, given that if you renounce Lee and the Bulls don't match Asik, you lose Lee for nothing and by waiving the non-guaranteed guys, you would lose a bunch of trade fillers that could come in handy down the road.

If you could trade Lee to the Celtics for a pick, Dooling (S&T at $2M), Moore and S.Williams (both non-guaranteed), you then would only have to waive three non-guaranteed contracts (e.g. Fortson, Simpson, S.Williams) to sign Asik to his offer-sheet.

Does this make sense? Am I missing something? Carl, Bima, others feel free to chime in.

 

I mean, just smells like T-mac 2 in so many ways. I think we're making a mistake.[/QUOTE]

Life is short, Lou - gotta go for it sometimes. I feel your anxiety - but this is too big an opportunity to pass on.

Worst case ain't so bad - We have bird rights and flip him for another star.

 

They just picked up Forstons option.

 

Fortson is still non-guaranteed AFAIK.

Bima just tweeted me that the "Rockets have enough room to add Lin, Asik and keep Lee's cap hold. Only need to renounce Dragic and waive 1 min NG'd contract.", so disregard my previous post.

Not sure what I'm missing though.

Spoiler

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<table class="tableizer-table">
<tr class="tableizer-firstrow"><th>Player</th><th>2011/2012</th><th>2012/2013</th><th>2013/2014</th><th>2014/2015</th><th>2015/2016</th><th>Total</th></tr> <tr><td>Kevin Martin</td><td>$11,519,840.00</td><td>$12,439,675.00</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$23,959,515.00</td></tr> <tr><td>Omer Asik</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Jeremy Lin</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$8,366,666.00</td><td>$8,366,666.00</td><td>$8,366,666.00</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$25,099,998.00</td></tr> <tr><td>Shaun Livingston</td><td>$3,500,000.00</td><td>$3,500,000.00</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$7,000,000.00</td></tr> <tr><td>Derek Fisher</td><td>$3,400,000.00</td><td>$644,005.00</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$4,044,005.00</td></tr> <tr><td>Courtney Lee</td><td>$2,225,093.00</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$2,225,093.00</td></tr> <tr><td>Goran Dragic</td><td>$2,108,000.00</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$2,108,000.00</td></tr> <tr><td>Patrick Patterson</td><td>$1,959,960.00</td><td>$2,096,760.00</td><td>$3,105,302.00</td><td>$4,319,474.00</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$11,481,496.00</td></tr> <tr><td>Marcus Morris</td><td>$1,823,280.00</td><td>$1,905,360.00</td><td>$1,987,320.00</td><td>$2,943,221.00</td><td>$4,094,020.00</td><td>$12,753,201.00</td></tr> <tr><td>Gary Forbes</td><td>$1,500,000.00</td><td>$1,500,000.00</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$3,000,000.00</td></tr> <tr><td>Toney Douglas</td><td>$1,145,640.00</td><td>$2,067,880.00</td><td>$3,101,820.00</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$3,213,520.00</td></tr> <tr><td>Jon Brockman</td><td>$1,000,000.00</td><td>$1,000,000.00</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$2,000,000.00</td></tr> <tr><td>Chandler Parsons</td><td>$850,000.00</td><td>$888,250.00</td><td>$926,500.00</td><td>$964,750.00</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$3,629,500.00</td></tr> <tr><td>Josh Harrellson</td><td>$473,604.00</td><td>$762,195.00</td><td>$1,084,293.00</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$2,320,092.00</td></tr> <tr><td>Jerome Jordan</td><td>$473,604.00</td><td>$762,195.00</td><td>$1,084,293.00</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$2,320,092.00</td></tr> <tr><td>Greg Smith </td><td>$473,604.00</td><td>$762,195.00</td><td>$854,389.00</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$2,090,188.00</td></tr> <tr><td>Jon Leuer</td><td>$473,604.00</td><td>$762,195.00</td><td>$1,084,293.00</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$2,320,092.00</td></tr> <tr><td>Courtney Fortson (*)</td><td>$118,401.00</td><td>$762,195.00</td><td>$1,084,293.00</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$1,964,889.00</td></tr> <tr><td>Diamon Simpson (*)</td><td>$57,291.00</td><td>$762,195.00</td><td>$1,084,293.00</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$1,903,779.00</td></tr> <tr><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Total salaries:</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$42,481,766.00</td><td>$23,763,462.00</td><td>$16,594,111.00</td><td>$4,094,020.00</td><td>$120,433,460.00</td></tr> <tr><td>Cap Room</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$15,562,234.00</td><td>$34,280,538.00</td><td>$41,449,889.00</td><td>$53,949,980.00</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>W/o insignificant players (*)</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$17,086,624.00</td><td>$36,449,124.00</td><td>$41,449,889.00</td><td>$53,949,980.00</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Cap Holds</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Player</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>2012/2013</td><td>Notes</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Courtney Lee</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$5,562,733.00</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Donatas Motiejunas </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$1,361,400.00</td><td>120.00%</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Jeremy Lamb</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$1,683,500.00</td><td>100.00%</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Joyce White</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$1,432,900.00</td><td>100.00%</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Terrence Jones</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$1,237,500.00</td><td>100.00%</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Total cap holds:</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$11,278,033.00</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Cap Room</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$4,284,201.00</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>W/o insignificant players</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$5,808,591.00</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td></td></tr></table>

 

Could someone please tell me what the Lin contract does to our cap situation next season in terms of offering 2 max contracts? Before this deal it was reported that we could offer 2 max deals next season even with taking on some bad contracts from the Magic.

IMO, if this Lin contract IN ANY WAY PREVENTS us from offering 2 max contracs next offseason this is an EPIC FAIL!!!!

 

Simple answer, nobody knows..there are way too many variables in play.

Things will be much clearer at the end of next week.