Hollinger's 2012 Draft Rater

His model also has Tyrus Thomas, Michael Sweetney, Curtis Borchardt??? and Jared Jeffries over Chris Bosh.
I have never been a fan of draft ratings and tiers.

 

Well, he did admit the model's limitation on bigmen prediction. Given how strong Davis' defense is, I'm surprised to see the PER based projection at above 22.

 

It's easy to say that now, but if you compare those players stats to Bosh they were all slightly better out of college, especially considering Bosh was one and done.

 

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I'd say he's more of a Tyreke Evans Clone.

 

But the point is he's trying to figure out what players will be the best pro's. I'm pretty sure he's not just saying who has great college stats and then ranking in that manner.

He's putting out a model that is attempting to say "this is the order players should be drafted by".

His model is just as hit and miss as many/most other legitimate scouts, imo

 

One more takeaway: Kentucky players are mostly undervalued in other mock drafts.

Hollinger puts a lot of Kentucky players in higher ranking than other mock drafts, and I think it makes sense. Just look at the 2008 Olympics game when US won the gold, Kobe/Lebron/DWH/Bosh/DWade... they are the redemption team and finally won the gold in a close game with Spain. But the superstar's individual stats took a heavy hit compared to their NBA season stats.

1. Anthony Davis
2. Thomas Robinson
3. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
4. Dion Waiters
5. Andre Drummond
6. Quincy Miller
7. Jared Sullinger
8. Terrence Jones
9. John Henson
10. Royce White
11. Bradley Beal
12. Harrison Barnes
13. Tony Wroten
14. Kendall Marshall
15. Marquis Teague
16. Draymond Green
17. Jeremy Lamb
18. Damian Lillard
19. Austin Rivers
20. Doron Lamb
21. Furkan Aldemir
22. Will Barton
23. Tyler Zeller
24. Evan Fournier
25. Tyshawn Taylor
26. Meyers Leonard
27. Terrence Ross
28. Perry Jones
29. Festus Ezeli
30. Fab Melo

 

"I've developed a tool that analyzes college stats to predict NBA performance and have refined it over the past several years. It's something we can use to help identify draft steals and busts."

Read the article.

 

I think he also incorporates competition, height, weight, age, and position into his equation.

 

That's exactly what I said??

He's trying to figure out who will have the best NBA performance?

Unless you are arguing that you shouldn't draft based on who will have the best NBA performance (and I can't help you if you think that you should draft players less likely to be good ahead of players more likely to be good), he's developed a tool to rank the order players should be drafted...

Does his tool ignore non-statistical measurements, like a player's IQ or headcase personality? yes, but he then factors that in (a bit) in his final ranking.

 

I suggest you look up PER, both of you are idiots.

 

I might be an idiot, but you're a douchebag and a moron... so, yeah...

You can cherry-pick it all you want. He's working on a tool to measure projected NBA performance of draft picks - in other words, draft rankings. He uses PER, which is his measurement for ranking NBA performance. He understands its limitations, but its what he goes by to rank NBA output.

Moreover, He DOES incorporate non-statistical concepts into his rater analysis a bit, as he readily admits.

 

Look H.O.V.A , if he could put non-quantitative data into an equation Chris Bosh would have a higher PER coming out of college than Mike Sweetney, but their numbers say otherwise. The only non-statistical data he adjusts NBA PER is for team pace.

 

For someone who is complaining about others reading comprehension, you might want to think of doing a better job yourself:

 

One last try - The Player Ratings are numbers that aren't adjusted by his 'Draft Rater', for example, Doron Lamb's projected PER is 10.65 and Jeremy Lamb's projected PER is 10.50, however, moreover, and like such as, their positions on his big board : Doron Lamb - 20 and Jeremy Lamb - 17. In long, I was making a point that the reason Mike Sweetney is(was) rated higher than Chris Bosh is due to having a more efficient college career solely based on PER. How can you compare players that were selected in different draft classes?

 

I'm not, I'm commenting on his system as a whole, which is no better than any other.

It appears the person that was comparing across draft classes was none other than Hollinger himself?

He's doing this to rank draft classes.... I don't care about his PER ratings, I care about what he's saying about his ultimate rankings. If he has player ratings but then says oh wait, I wouldn't actually draft them in that order.. fine, let me know what order you'd draft them in. Which he does. And which, as I've noted pretty clearly in my posts, he includes non-statistical analysis into his rater rankings. I don't know why we're arguing this? He says so himself.

 

Overall I like his draft rater, but looks like his model seriously undervalues small school competition. Guys like Lillard, Andrew Nicholson, Orlando Johnson, Miles Plumlee ... are ranked too low. I guess Jeremy Lin wouldn't be high on his list.

 

"One player that Draft Rater isn't crazy about is Damian Lillard of Weber State, who compiled strong numbers but did so against a weak schedule and is much older than most of the prospects at his position. He not only failed to outrank the top point guards above but also rates behind the less-heralded Tyshawn Taylor of Kansas."

I could be wrong about the height, weight, and position, but straight from Hollinger, Lilliard compiled good numbers, but competition and age held him back in draft rater's projection.

Me 1 scolandry 0

 

Well we ended up with 8, 10, and 17 on Hollinger's rankings. Strangely enough, although Lamb doesn't come up too well in these rankings, he seems to do pretty good in the Draftexpress statistical breakdown. As a wing player, he rated as the most efficient finisher in the paint and third most coming off screens.

So while Hollinger seems to like White and Jones the most, I myself feel the most safe about Lamb. White needs the ball in his hands a majority of the time to play his game, and I'm just not sure he'll get that chance in the NBA.

 

Plumlee went to Duke. I don't think small school competition was his problem. I think it was the fact he averaged 7-7 with under a block as a senior.