2012 Draft Overrated?

This draft might very well benefit the Rockets more than any other team in this years draft.

You look at the past three drafts and the Rockets have been very clear who their targets are.- Rubio, Cousins, and this last year it was Valanciunas. Its pretty clear that the Rockets really do pick top talent very well. Its just that they dont ever have top talent picks.

This year however, there are going to be sleeper picks everywhere in the draft, and players that fall for a wide variety of reasons. Enter the Rockets at 14 & 16 to be there when a number of teams "miss" on a player. Only this time that player wont be a Good role player type, and that player could have a much higher ceiling on the next level.

Plus, one positive about this draft is that there is alot of size. That doesn't necessarily benefit the Rockets directly, but what it does do is it makes teams take players in a "tier" based on need. An elite wing player or PG might very well fall to the Rockets quite easily because a team like the Wizards, or Kings already have their PG of the future, and take a gamble on a big instead.

 

Isiah Thomas is not the pg for the future. They will upgrade that position if possible.

 

You can't just look at at surface level production when trying to determine how deep this draft is. If you did that, Beasley would've had to be a sure thing. I believe this draft is deep because the top 20 prospects have games that are well suited for the NBA. it's a sleeper draft for sure. Just cause there aren't 4-5 sure things doesn't mean it won't end up deep. How many "shallow" drafts have turned out really deep?

 

This, and because of this reason, I doubt that rockets will move up in the draft by trade away both 14 and 16 just to get a 9-10 pick, it is not worth in it in this year's draft.

 

Much of the change in perception of this draft is really tied to 3 guys in the sophmore class: Barnes, Sullinger and Perry Jones.

All 3 of these guys were highly touted college recruits and projected at one point or another as top 5 picks in 2011. Each of them decided to return for their 2nd season after having decent (Jones) to excellent (Sullinger) freshmen seasons. Each of them didn't make a huge jump, statistically, from where they were a year ago.

The 2012 class became perceived as very deep once the 3 of them decided to not enter the 2011 draft (likely tied to the lockout)-- they be all like "Man, we got 3 extra top 5 guys, yo!" The 2012 class became perceived as "overrated" once they finished their 2nd college season without making a statistical jump. I think the teams will start considering the draft class as "deep" again once they are reminded of the fact that these guys (along with other "disappointing" guys like Terrence Jones and Austin Rivers) are still very young and have the tools upon which to improve into very good pros.

 

I really think we should trade away lowry, Martin, Scola, Dalembert, and budinger to get some more lottery or 15-20 picks, let's have 5 young rookies come in include D-mo to the team. IF we do that, we are able to get 2 out of three of those three players you are talking about and I agree with you that they are very special.

 

What players in it besides Davis absolutely dominated?

 

I think Perry and Barnes were already under heavy scrutiny last season. Sullinger was fantastic last season so saying he didn't improve much is still saying he's fantastic. This draft has a lot of potential, but I think GMs are seeing a lot of guys with holes right now.

There will be a lot of busts in 2012. There may be some late steals with some of these guys too., but there are going to be plenty of unhappy fans in 2013.

 

You are right. The story on Perry and Barnes is different than the one for Sullinger. Sullinger was more productive than the former two. I think what they have in common, though, is that the 2nd year issue invited more scrutiny and questions. For Barnes and Perry, it's why their numbers are not better. For Sullinger, the question remains about his athleticism and how his high level of college production will translate to the NBA. Different questions, but the 2nd year gave scouts and GMs more time to worry about them.

 

The Kings might draft a PG, but that doesn't mean they will consider him an upgrade from Thomas. Thomas is likely to be second team all Rookie behind Kyrie Irving. I would highly disagree that the Kings aren't considering him their future PG at least for the next year or two. Unless Deron Williams is signing in Sacramento, which he's not, Thomas is their man.

 

I don't think it works like that. When top picks suck during their rookie years in the NBA, their value lowers the next year. For example, no team with a top 5 pick would've traded that pick for rookie Kandiman or Kwame Brown the next year. The reason a lot of freshmen players are hyped so much is simply because of their potential for growth. When that potential lowers, so do their draft stock.

In 2011, players like Sullinger and Jones had the potential to improve next year or fail to improve. In 2012, these same players are known to have failed to improve at least for one year. You can't really expect teams to give them the same grade regardless.

 

I agree.... I would go beyond Jones, Sullinger and Barnes being disapointments... look at Quincy Miller, Andre Drummond and Lamb not taking a step forward in their development.... a lot of folks thought that at least HALF these guys would dominate, but they didnt..... so now everyone looks at them as less than studs, but with lots of potential......

 

It isn't about giving them the same "grade", it is about giving them a grade in relation to the other players in the draft.

 

I was speaking in context of the thread. Or am I not understanding the idea of "2012 draft overrated" correctly?

 

What do you mean? The article basically said the talent level is around the same as the 2011, and honestly I'd have to agree, simply because as the article points out the "2 and done" crowd didn't live up to expectations.

Basically, 2011 was supposed to be extremely weak because several blue chip prospects who would have declared and been in the lottery got scared of the lockout and opted to stay an extra year. Due to that 2012 should have been extremely stacked because not only did it contain its own draft studs, it'd also have 2011's draft studs.

But that's not what really happened. When people think of "stacked draft in decades" IMHO the best measuring stick is Lebron's draft. That draft had multiple guys who had both superstar potential AND immediate impact. In this draft though aside from Davis and Robinson which guys meet that criteria?

So in a sense the draft is indeed extremely overrated, there are very few blue-chip rookies. However I guess the potential is there, but these guys seem extremely flawed/have major question marks, which IMHO makes this draft a bit more risky than your normal draft. So higher reward but also higher risk than your average draft, which makes it around average all things considered.

 

This draft is deep in the fact that there will be more players contributing to their respective teams early on in their careers. Thus, possibly having a wider range of players in the run for ROY in 2012-13.

 

Which players are you talking about? Wings like Rivers, Lamb and Beal are always present every year in the draft, and apart from Robinson and Davis I really don't see any big impact big men available.

Barnes, Perry Jones etc. might explode on the scene, but the likely scenario is they will be Gay or Derozan-like when they step on the floor as rookies-black holes and defensive liabilities.

 

I feel Sullinger will be pretty good right away. Zeller will be a great backup or starter. Henson will definitely impact defensively. Moultrie should get time first year and even Andrew Nicholson could make an impact immediately. Leonard and Melo are both 7' and regardless of their current ability, size is valued in the NBA. Drummond probably won't make an impact first year at least.

MKG is a starter. Rivers sucks. I like Lamb, in the right environment he's a fantastic complementary player. I can see him starting. Terrence Ross and Jeff Taylor can be 20+ minute players first year.

Kendall Marshall and Damian Lillard can start, and the teams that draft them may well do that because it will be a lottery team that needs a PG.

ROY is all about getting PT, and there are a bunch of players that can.

 

That 2010 draft class actually turned out to be pretty good. The majority of the 1st round picks from that draft are regular rotational players for their respective teams. Some have even made somewhat of an impact. Funny what a couple of seasons in the NBA can do for you.