Amen Thompson is the Rockets' REAL franchise player

Amen’s detractors presume he will never develop a shot. Amen’s backers believe he will at least develop a mid-range jump shot and, maybe, a decent 3 pt shot.

If Amen’s floor is what he is right now, like so many predict, then he is a near all-star, career dpoy candidate, and super role player. If he develops a shot, he is easily a top 10 player with a ceiling of a superstar. None of us know for sure which will happen. In any case, at 23 years old with his work-ethic and bbiq, he will be a max or near-max player and no team will be fool enough to trade him for fit reasons at this stage of his career. Whether he is your primary offensive option or not, he is the most likely on this team to be built around.

 

As far as I can tell, there are no "Amen detractors", just some overly sensitive fans who went from being crazy Jalen fanbois who thought reality was hate to crazy Amen fans who are now doing the same.

No one that I've seen "hates" on Amen. Some don't assume he's destined to be a top 10 player in the league... but that's not hate.

 

Agree with this, but he's not to the point that one can build around him. Build with, sure, but I'm not sure the Rockets have someone that the Rockets can build with Amen as much as I like Reed's potential.

I'm much more concerned with the young guys than I was a year ago.

 

I think that's the correct phrasing, you build around stars, you build with promising role players.

Right now, there aren't any stars... not even KD really, he's more of a former star.

We have 3 promising young players in Sengun, Amen, and Reed Sheppard. All 3 are super young and need to develop parts of their game that are lacking.

 

I can agree with all that. Arguing about the nuances of build around or build with is not worth arguing about. Especially since none of us knows the future and we don’t have anywhere as much information to build an opinion on as the front office and coaching staff. Of course, predicting the future of our players and their strengths and weaknesses and discussing possible trades, coaching blunders, rotations is the fun of this. I would add Jabari to the promising young players.

 

That's probably fair, it's easy to forget that he doesn't even turn 23 until May.

That said, he's clearly a level below the other 3.

 

Big Perk says Amen can be best 2 way player in the league. But also this list just shows us how good OKC’s defense is. Makes we wonder why Rockets didn’t get Caruso?

 

Biggest takeaway this year is that these are still developing players and they *do not* work with Kevin Durant.

 

I think Amen is probably my favorite franchise player.

I can't wait to see him come back from the offseason with some new developments. I think he and Reed should be starting backcourt.

 

I would agree, but Ime won’t. It will be FVV, Amen, Durant, Jabari, Sengun.

 

Today's Dunc'd On podcast is Nate and Danny's developmental progress report for all of the young players in the Western Conference. On Amen:

Danny: "the lack of offensive growth is really disappointing. 56% on twos with his non-shooting as a problem. And it's more than the percentage. It's that Amen does not apply his athleticism towards drives and finishing. So that puts more pressure on the shot that isn't there. And now with it having been this long, I have more concerns about what he will be"

Nate: "the shooting, of course, hasn't developed just like his brother. I think you're just going to have to say that is just never going to happen at this point in time. And that has to be present. And it's similar to Ben Simmons, a lot of the same strengths and weaknesses... for me, Amen Thompson, the two-point finishing just hasn't been dominating enough. When people are talking about him possibly being a max player, I'm sorry, I just don't see that at all. I think that would be extremely unwise for the Rockets who largely have done a good job, I would say, of negotiating these extensions and could be extremely unwise for the Rockets to invest in him at that level right now when he has to be an off-ball offensive player who can't shoot and he'll give you something interesting, but not that much. Like they're not some good transition team. Like they're one of the slowest teams in the league. His offensive rebounding does help, but that's if he's going to play the four on offense. So he gets a little bit more difficult to play him with some of their two-big lineups that they love. And I think one of the biggest things that stands out to me is his overall shot quality is 57% and his effective field goal percentage is 53.5... he's supposed to be this dominating athlete who can get whatever he wants to inside and he just has to be an elite finisher and he's just been a good one. And a lot of those are kind of, you know, tip-dunk transition plays. Like when he's really contested, it just, he hasn't been able to dominate physically and teams have gotten away with putting smaller guys on him. He can't really hurt them... a D+ season, for me, honestly"

Danny: "I go below that. I think it's a D- for me, because the offensive game just isn't there. The opportunity was there and he's not better defensively than he was. He's showing different parts of it, but he was great defender last year too. Yeah, that's true."

Nate: "hard for us to say what he's gotten better at in a meaningful way. And when you don't, if you're a guy at his age, just completing his third season, if you don't improve at all on your third season, that really can alter your trajectory"

Before the flames ignite, let me stress their grades are for Amen's development from last year through this one, as opposed to his overall grade as a player.

Other takeaways:

Bari hasn't substantially improved from last year either.

Tari has regressed.

Reed's improvement is as they expected.

Sengun hasn't improved either, but they suspect he could be better used by a different coach and with more options around him.

 

I'd say Amen has improved some offensively, but the regression on defense and lack of shooting overshadow it.

I think JSJ hasn’t broken out, but he’s clearly a more functional and effective offensive player.

Tari's regression hurts. Rockets need guys that can play defense as well as him, but also be a three-point threat and not solely a statue on offense.

Reed has improved. I think his improvement has raised his ceiling, but his inconsistency has left his floor even lower.

Sengun has had a few good games lately, but has been bad most of the season (bad as in realtive to his performance last season and start of tis season). I think Sengun's play being as bad as it has been has made the Rockets look worse overall than what one should expect from the other players on the team.

 

That's exactly what I've been saying. None of the young players we drafted (Jalen, Sengun, Bari, Tari, Amen, Cam...Reed still in his 2nd season) has had significant improvement after their second season. That's 6 guys, and I'm not counting the other guys we discarded like Christopher, Garuba, and TyTy. Something is not right with our player development. If it's only 3 or 4 guys, you can say we're just unlucky getting a bunch of low ceiling dudes. But 6 of them over three years...

 

Sengun definitely had significant improvement after his second season, not just in the box score counting numbers but all advanced stats. Maybe you can argue he plateaued in this third season, but certainly not the second. His scoring, assist rates, and PER are up significantly, while his turnover rate is much lower. He's also a much better defender than his second year even with this year's midseason slump and his DPBM reflects that.

Improvement in incredibly young players can be hard to measure and may not even be linear. Amen's in his third year. How many players in his class have taken a leap this year? Wemby and that's it? How many in Jabari's class? Even in the vaunted 2021 class how many have improved since sophomore year more than Sengun? Probably Cade alone. Amen's twin is on Cade's Pistons and hasn't exactly popped off, but that doesn't say anything about Detroit's developmental program.

Garuba, Tyty, Christopher, and Cam weren't even on the team anymore after their second seasons. They all played for other teams and did not improve at all, so that's hardly an indictment of the Houston's developmental process. If any one of them had blossomed on other team it would actually support your point. And I don't see the point in bringing them up when they were mid to late 1st round picks. It's not like Jeremy Sochan, Malaki Branham, and Blake Wesley reflect how well San Antonio develops their players, and Sochan was a lotto pick.

 

If guys don't improve with you but breakout elsewhere, that's a player development problem. But if guys just fall off the face of the Earth, that's a player evaluation problem.

But before you diagnose a player evaluation problem, you need to evaluate your picks relative to their draft class and the consensus that particular year. In that regard, I can't say the Rockets have been bad, but they haven't exceeded expectations either apart from the Sengun trade.

What they have gotten right, however, is not overpaying for their own guys' extensions. That trend must continue with Amen. Right now I'd offer him something in between Bari's contract and Sengun's deal.

 

It’s not going to work with Amen. They’ll give him the max unless he gets injured or lose him. He will bet on himself and win.

 

Two words.

Rafael. Stone.

 

Amen will maybe never develop a better midrange than a 3PT shot. It’s the hardest shot to develop, that’s why very few people have it even though half the league claims to have worked on it every summer. It takes years to develop any of these shots. I’d argue that we’ve seen way more players develop a 3PT shot above 33% than a midrange jumper above 50%. Might as well choose the more systemically impactful one.

He’s shooting 26.3% on midrange right now. To put that in perspective, that’s equivalent to shooting 17.5% from 3. So he’s already a far better 3PT shooter than midrange shooter.

If we cherry pick the easiest midrange shots in the world, they are the ones in the paint (but outside the restricted area). He’s shooting just 43.3% on those and we’re including floaters. That’s equivalent to 28.6% from 3PT range. On the easiest of midrange shots. Why on earth would we waste time on the shot that doesn’t solve the spacing issues when he can easily make 3’s at roughly the same rate? Four other people benefit from him taking a 3.

Being good at midrange would be good for his own personal stats but it’s not going to make defenses collapse and it’s not going to make teams stop sagging off him. It’s also not going happen faster. Stopping, gathering and rising smoothly before a midrange shot is more difficult than a set 3PT shot when you’re left wiiiiide open.

Just keep taking 3’s and keep working on it. He’ll get there. He’s become a damn near 80% FT shooter. There’s reason to have hope.

 

this offseason, Amen should work exclusively only behind the three point line. ball handling, catch & shoot, off the dribble, stepback, fadeaway, runner, even running and launching from behind the arc for layups and floaters

 

While I agree, at this point, I actually think it’s more important for Sengun to develop into a decent 3 point shooter - this would allow Amen to operate more effectively from the dunker’s spot. If Sengun develops a 3 point shot, I’m far less worried about Amen developing one.