A low BA does not necessarily mean the hitter is guessing. Frequently its because the hitter has intentionally altered his swing/approach expecting to have fewer hits but do more damage with the hits he gets. This is AN IMPROVEMENT hitters have made in the 21st century. 100% of MLBers would rather go 4 for 20 with a double and a HR than 6 for 20 with 6 singles.
This is a pet peeve of mine. Some words have a positive or negative connotation. Guessing* has a negative connotation in baseball. Connotations are not always correct. You can dress it up as 21st century baseball, describe it using different terms, provide two scenarios which are extreme sucky scenarios that the one that fits your narrative is slightly better...though still sucky....but ultimately what you are advocating is that guessing is good. Personally, I think guessing is good as long as it increases the damage a player does without sacrificing too many outs. *I think most people in baseball consider guessing to be swinging based on a pre-pitch or very early post pitch guess on what the pitch is and where it will be early to increase the damage that is done instead of using an approach that increases chance of contact.
I don't consider changing how you swing or customizing your swing to increase the chances of a specific result as " guessing" Guessing has nothing to do with "how," it has to do with "when" We are talking about two completely different things.
Modern swings are: 1) Built for bat speed + intent 2) Designed around on-time contact out front 3 Dependent on commitment earlier in the window The way one swings (the “how”) today forces an earlier decision (the “when”). You can’t take a big, fast, rotational swing and decide late — the time constraints don’t allow it. So while “how” and “when” can be separated conceptually, in practice they’re tightly coupled. Once you commit to a high-intent swing, you’ve already constrained when the decision has to happen. That doesn’t mean hitters are blindly guessing — it means they’re making earlier, informed guesses based on cues, patterns, and intent.
I'm not sure that is always the case. Hitter #1 gets 8 total bases but also produces 16 outs. Hitter #2 gets only 6 bases but also only produces 14 outs. Both are 0.600 OPS hitters so they suck, but hitter #2 allows a team to get 2 extra ABs by a hopefully better hitter. If this is the #9 hitter, this would get your leadoff hitter those 2 extra ABs.
The object of baseball is to score runs, and you do that by getting as many players on base as you possibly can. I understand adjusting your swing to do the most damage with runners on base and less than 2 outs, but to do it every AB seems to be counter-productive. But, MLB knows the stats over the years so they will do what they feel is best an players will do what pays them the most.
You are assuming only one player on the team is focused on singles. When you have a team full of guys that can get on base then those singles can turn into 1 or 2 runs routinely while in the other scenario the double may happen with nobody on base- then the next guy strikes out anyway.
Much of this depends on the hitters around you. The guy with the low BA but high power has more variance - he's going to help his team a lot and hurt his team a lot. On a bad offense, you really want that. On a really good offense, consistency and avoiding outs can be more helpful. Take the extreme example of two teams with all 9 of their hitters as: Team A: 9 hitters that all bat 0.500 and all their hits are HRs. All your players have an OPS of 2.500 and this lineup will score about 27 runs a game. Team B: 9 hitters that all bat 1.000 with only singles. This team has an OPS of "only" 2.000, but you will score an infinite number of runs.
Both these guys suck and would have to bat 9th in today's game. Sure, getting the leadoff guy a couple of extra ABs is nice, but odds are much lower that there are a bunch of high OBP hitters at the end of the lineup. Of the Astros teams, maybe 2017, 2019, and 2021 had deep enough teams that maybe the 2 extra singles would be worth it. Prior to being in the AL, no way would you want the singles-only guy before the pitcher. It is hard to get a hit these days. At the bottom of the order, I think that homer every 5th or 6th game would be too valuable over 2 more chances at a rally.
That was sort of my argument for why Walker was slightly more valuable than his numbers last year with 27 HR’s if he would have hit 7th where he should have. Changing the board every 5th day with one swing isn’t awful down there.
Home runs become more valuable relative to singles and walks in the bottom of the order, IMO. Home runs in the bottom of the order are less valuable than home runs in the top or middle of the order. Walker stats would look better for a No. 7 hitter, but moving a guy down the order makes them generally produce less.
