Also, I think I've changed my thoughts on the VP pick, and I actually think now that Elizabeth Warren actually might be the best VP candidate for this fall. I've changed my thoughts here mostly due to Covid. A. The conversation this Fall will mostly be about economics coming out of Covid B. She has a personal story to tell (lost her brother to Covid) C. She can get media attention that I fear someone like Abrams might not get D. She'll rip into the Trump admin on corruption following the bail outs. Making corruption a top issue in November is key. E. Helps ease the coalition with Bernie's supporters who do respect her unlike they would someone like Kamala. Thoughts?
No, clearly Bernie went too far with his policies and messaging. Progressive policies poll well in the abstract, but you need to know how to sell it. Bernie couldn't expand his base.
I'm of the mindset that Bernie isn't the best human in existence to express progressive values as there are younger more charismatic people out there but at the same time I also believe even the best candidate for progressive causes such as universal public health insurance and severe restrictions on lobbying, promised board member seats and campaign finance would fail due to the monied influence in our system that is very resistant to these reforms.
TJ already mentioned the game plan in an earlier post. They don't care that Trump is many times more guilty of the things they plan on attacking Biden with. There are no "gettable" voters for Trump; who is undecided after 4 years of this experience? Since they know that the 30-40% Trump base will ride or die with him - even if he murders a man on Fifth Avenue - and they believe that all they have to do is tar Biden's reputation enough to depress voter turnout in swing states and score another electoral college victory while losing the popular vote by millions of ballots.
Abrams would be the wrong pick for VP imho. This election will be close as Trump has a loyal base. It will come down to the swing voters (as always). There is a large enough sub section of these voters that will not vote for a Biden/Abrams ticket simply because they don’t want to see another African American potentially in office, a female one no less. Biden’s best chance is to have a white male VP.
I agree Abrams is not a strategic choice - Biden is already strong with African Americans due to Obama linkage. He is weak with the Spanish-speaking community, but there isn't an obvious Latino candidate that could step in immediately as President. So I think he chooses Klobuchar to help buttress the Midwest and women vote. Given Biden's age and declining mental faculties, he has to choose a VP nominee who could step in Day 1 as President. That limits the choices to previous candidates for President. Basically Kamala, Klobuchar or Warren, and of the three, Klobuchar is the strategic pick. She's very safe - milquetoast personality, not many unforced errors, bland as hell, basically... Inspires no one, but that's not what's important here.
What’s funny is that most independents voted for Trump on the assumption that he would tone down his rhetoric. Instead he doubled down on it. He has no nuance to his campaign strategy. Trump will lose and the RNC is gonna have to adapt to the 21st century. The forefront of their party is very ugly right now. Only saving grace by virtue of the long-game is reminding people that Romney, McCain and Bush were decent men
How do we know something happened? What we do know is that she has been a fabulist since the early 200's who has credibility issues other than these rape allegations. Why do you know that something happened? She was just propping Biden not 5 years ago.
Curious who you have in mind. Sherrod Brown? A governor like Newsom or Cuomo? I actually don’t think there are many in that category that give him an obvious boost. Of course, this is all kind of a moot point since we know he’s picking a female. And if we’re talking unlikely hypotheticals, nobody increases his chances of winning the election more than Michelle Obama, IMO.
I am not completely sold on Abrams as the VP pick but I totally disagree with you on swing voters. Who do you think elected Obama twice?
All good points, but the possibility of losing her Senate seat is what worries me. Massachusetts has a GOP governor, and unless I’m mistaken he gets to choose her replacement until a special election occurs. I don’t want to get into the weeds with the technicalities, since each state does it differently, but at least we can rest assured if she was chosen this issue was already accounted for and deemed not a serious threat. She wouldn’t be my choice but bottom line: she’s a political heavyweight. Biden needs to nail this VP pick and she certainly brings star power to the ticket.
Yep. The gameplan is to repeat 2016, and make him as unpopular as Hillary. Only issue is Hillary was already pretty unpopular before she ran. Up until about 6 months ago, Biden was someone who was good friends with John McCain and Lindsay Graham, and Obama's right hand man. He'll be much more challenging of a character to turn into a boogeyman. They also give themselves WAAYYY too much credit for Hillary's unpopularity. I think Newt Gingrich had more to do with grooming unpopular sentiment with Hillary from back in the 90's than Trump did in 2016. The biggest question is how much can the entire GOP do to sully Biden's reputation in such a short time. Especially when their biggest card they had to play (Hunter Biden/Ukraine) has already been played and flopped like a dead fish?
Also has a story to tell about Covid 19. I still lean on Warren because of the ability to tap into the economics that'll be at play this fall because of Covid, and especially corruption. I'm not THAT worried about losing Bernie's voters as I might have been a few weeks ago, but I do think that there will be plenty of the purist Bernie supporters that paint Khlobachar as a lobbyists dream.... true/fair or not. I'll probably go back and forth on candidates for the next few weeks, but I just think that this Fall the economics of Covid fallout will be story #1 with a mix of healthcare. At least I hope so and the media doesn't chase around whatever stupid conspiracy theory Trump and his cult roll out. To me, the best candidate for the times we are in, and about to be in is Warren. Who do you trust to craft, and sell to Americans the first big bailout/stimulus package of 2021.... Warren or Khlobachar?... I think that's an easy one.
It looks like if she's announced before June, it would allow for plenty of time to have another Democrat on the ballot in the fall for Massachusetts. https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_elections,_2020#Important_dates_and_deadlines I believe both Joe Kennedy or Seth Moulton could run for her seat, and have a good shot at retaining. Either one would just need to file for the primary by June. I don't think Warren would allow a situation where the governor gets to pick her seat. I'm sure she'd retire from her seat this Summer if she's asked to run as VP for Biden.
I'd personally prefer Warren. Heck, I voted for her dead candidacy in the primary when I got my turn. But it'll be Biden pitching the recovery, not his VP. Biden is running a return-to-the-status-quo campaign here, and Warren is too progressive a candidate to really fit. Klobuchar is as status quo as he is. I've seen other names floated that I don't think will have the gravitas. When the VP is announced, people will think on it hard -- can this person really be President? -- like we did with McCain's VP pick. Since it'll be a woman, that's already a strike against her. Sadly, probably can't afford a second strike for a minority. And then you definitely don't want someone with a thin resume or low national recognition. And you don't want someone who isn't battle-tested for the presidential campaign trail. Someone like Abrams did well speaking for herself in her race, but can Biden be confident she won't falter like Sarah Palin did under intense scrutiny? Or how Beto went from darling to doormat? So, I think his surest bet is Klobuchar. She has the white skin, the resume, the national recognition, the experience on a presidential campaign trail. She's boring but dependable. And all we really need to feel okay voting for Biden is to know that if he dies we won't get a clown show with his successor. I won't be inspired, but a Klobuchar administration won't be a clown show.
Good points. One thing about Warren is you have the feeling that the pundits will for sure jump at the first "Is it really Biden's campaign, or has it become Warren's campaign" headline the first chance they get. Having a VP who grabs media attention has it's downside.
I wish I were as optimistic as you are. The GOP commissioned post-mortems in the wake of 2012 that said they'd need to do some soul-searching, adapt, etc. if they ever wanted to win again. Instead we got Trump and his rabid fan-base that, along with Fox, has hijacked the Republican electorate. There is no room for Romneys or McCains in the modern GOP. Look at some of our resident conservative posters. For as much as we have disagreed over the years, I never would've expected them to all fall in line behind Donald Trump. Yet, here we are.
