Any one of you guys looking at a good airline stock to own should be on the lookout for AZUL. They are a great run company and have a strong balance sheet. They have one of the most profitable airlines in the sector and are actually run by smart people. I suspect that when LATAM goes out of business this year (a matter of time) you'll see AZUL take over that market share. They have a lot of political connections (in Latin America this is very important) with the Brazilian government and have a very loyal base. It's trading ridiculously cheap right now and will be around when the dust settles. I'd wait for a pullback but you guys should definitely put it on your radar.
Thanks was looking at Avianca. Between AVH and LTM, which one is more likely to go bust? Also this came up in my newsfeed: SAO PAULO, March 24 (Reuters) - Brazilian airline Azul <AZUL.N> said it is in talks with banks over a new credit line, as the company reduces its capacity by 90% between March 25 and April 30, according to a securities filing on Tuesday. The company said around 7,500 employees, more than half of its crew, have agreed to its unpaid leave program and that top management will take a 50% pay cut and managers, a 25% cut.
Man, I ****ing looked away a moment and missed entry earlier for THMO @ .... $3- $3.50.... Damn it, haha dont buy now unless you know something ie more news... , But damn... Easy double+ I can't believe I didn't put order in. Normally I'm on it... Just wanted to share some great times to step away at the wrong time. Hahah
Are you looking to put a lot in and hold it or daytrade? Robinhood is alright for action but if crazy volume/putting it in and leaving it, probably TD type or big ones as mentioned. I guess depending on plans, like if just going for quick plays and learning things RH is fine
I'm using interactive brokers, and at least 1 other person in this thread is as well. I find it pretty reliable and cheap, but my platform options are more limited because I'm not not stateside - others may have different opinions.
this "insider activity" info reflects what has been reported to the SEC as of the end of last qtr, weeks/months before this recent stock market tanking.
Yeah, so RH I like, just to get started, I think it's a little easier and if you go that route, just make sure to always set limit buys (I mean regardless of who you go with you want to control that and most will default to market buys), I only do market buys if I know something is rocketing like seconds would mean a miss. If it's an early tip/advice or just something you watched set your entry point using market buy. Like you don't want the broker etc setting a market buy on a slower investment because they"re likely to avg up to get you in fast. So on a high volume trade it could mean shares missed/higher profits lost
There's also no harm in doing like others here, have an account for longs/bigger money with like a TD type as you learn and then have RH for the action or shorter plays etc.
The Brazilian government has already come out and said that they will extend a loan to the airline. LATAM has been bleeding money for years now. They have the lowest profit margin out of any Latin American company at <2%. The Chilean government has already come out and said that they will not bail out the company because of all the protests that occurred last year. If the government was to bail out the airline before helping out the citizens they would massive riots on the streets. There's already massive civil unrest on the streets of Chile and there not going to risk it getting worst by bailing them out. I'm sure the government will nationalize the airline but the company is doomed for bankruptcy. There's no doubt that AZUL will be suffering in the short term but this is a long term play. Someone has to be left standing after all this is settled and if you pick right you could easily 10x your money from today in a few years. AZUL has the right people in the Brazilian government on payroll so I'm not worried about them going bankrupt anytime soon.
You are way too optimistic for your projections with airlines, assuming people will be rushing to travel and vacation as soon as the virus deaths subsides. Not only is there stigma now, but you also have the reality that this virus comes in waves and most places cannot keep mobilizing and inventing medical equipment for free. There will be shockwaves felt across the industry for a while. Major businesses will be hurt and previous business travel will be reduced to teleconferencing whenever possible. If you want to invest in airline stocks, go with the diverse brands like boeing who have telecommunication equipment, missiles, satellites and tech they sell to other companies and governments. Not JUST planes and flights. It will be a long, slow climb out of the pit for many airline specialists, no matter how big they seemed, and a few will fold altogether.
I'm not too optimistic about US airlines but south American mentality is completely different than how Americans think. Brazilians and Colombians, in general, live like there's no tomorrow and live on the edge. AZUL was just flying at 80% capacity last month even with the virus breaking out in Brazil. There's no doubt that US airlines will take a while to rebound but I expect South America to rebound very sharply simply because their culture is very different. People in South America have gone through much more worst then this virus as crazy as that sounds. I use to live in South America as I did business and you just have to understand their mentality. Also, the risk/reward is too great for you not to gamble. One of Avianca/LATAM/AZUL/GOL will come up on top of this and whoever comes up on top will easily be valued 10x then what it is today. There's too much value not to take a gamble. BA has way to much debt for my liking and their debt/equity ratio is not one of a company I would like to invest in. I suspect that the government will want equity in the company after this bailout.
And where will the money come from to live like this? What is the average income of those who spend on plane travel recreationally and what do they depend on to earn that money? More destruction of the Amazon for logging companies and cow feedlots so they can live like no tomorrow? Brazil doesn't have a great checks and balances system fro their economy and it's not the virus stigma that will affect them, it's the lack of funds. Of course there will be a winner in the sparring match eventually, but not a straight forward sure thing. I would love to take the 10x bet with you...
Were you just waiting on earnings? Assume it popped right when they came out, so when you say easy double... what was your thesis going into the day?
coke. sw airlines. Boeing. give me life I just sold all 3 and IDGAF. I'm up 120% in two weeks. Why isn't it always this easy
I mean who knows what's been priced in or not yet... BUT... The airline industry employs almost a million americans. The restaurant industry employees 5-15 million americans, depending on how its defined. the hotel industry employs like 2.3 million. At the low end, that's 8.3 million jobs. If 10% of those are gone, that's 830,000 ... which, honestly if the number comes out there might not impact market at all. But I think that's low.
