Yeah... that etiquette is bad here in Pasadena, CA. We were walking in a grocery store when this lady just started wet-coughing without covering in front of us. I kinda reflexively said jfc out loud and she stared at me and continued coughing. I'm just gonna start flat out saying "gross"... because it is. And yeah... hand sanitizer was out of stock at a Walmart, a Home Depot, and a couple of other places I went to yesterday before finding a gold mine of the stuff at a grocery store. It was reasonably priced.
Interesting graphic making the rounds. The gist of it is that since we have functionally eliminated most wild mammals, viruses will continue to move to the only home available, which is us and the animals we eat.
Welp... https://www.foxla.com/news/flight-a...h-coronavirus-after-flight-out-of-los-angeles I work in the airline industry...it's getting kinda scary visiting airports and the employees there. Pure paranoia on my part...but this shows there's some reason to be paranoid. I also wonder how much longer until all flights are shut down and Im out of a job?
Airlines may get shut down, but buck up! There will be exciting opportunities for growth in the decomposing corpse remediation field! Honestly, China shut down for basically a month, despite the situation still going on. I'm guessing you may get a little forced unpaid vacation, but I cant imagine it being long enough for you to get another job.
That's not paranoia IMO that's the current reality -- I would be really nervous working in an airport right now. Ug.
The spread is rampant now, more new cases outside of China then in now. We are lucky to have no new cases outside of those in quarantine / overseas for a month now, we are lucky to have only 2 people who were infected on US soil (marriage partners of spouses returning infected from China). How long this luck will last will probably be incredibly short. Buckle up folks.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/soc...e-likely-sars-bond-human-cells-scientists-say Look out for cytokine storms.
I was thinking more on this.. , and if the article above is correct... It might actually already be in the US (incubation but still spreading, also probably no test kits - and I don't recall this being mentioned in a peer paper on the sequence but I will see if I can find more if I have time). With that said, I think you had a question earlier regarding the 2-3% mortality rate that's being cited that's a lot higher in other countries (ie Iran) etc, the reason is because of how countries are reporting and it being low/new to the area. For example when an outbreak starts most people are probably not having symptoms and think it's just a cold/flu like etc so they don't officially get counted in the numbers (no test kits, got over virus on their own etc). So what you'll see is initially only the really sick people will probably get counted since they were tested and confirmed it being the reason. That's why you can't confirm using morality rate in Iran, for example... only having like 5 confirmed px's having it, and let's say 4 die - it'd show a 80% mortality rate, but it'd be tossed out because the sample size is so low since only the sick people were tested/confirmed. Also, to add to this--Iran is blocking reporting and here's a news source kind of detailing what I'm stating-" The head of Medical Science University in Qom, Mohammad Reza Ghadir, said on state television that the Health Ministry had banned releasing figures on the outbreak in the city. Asked how many people had been placed in quarantine, Ghadir said, "The Health Ministry has told us not to announce any new statistics." - and from the same source "It's unclear whether Iran has the ability to find out how many people have been infected, which would require venturing out to towns and villages to conduct tests and not simply relying on who goes to large hospitals with severe symptoms, said Dr. William Schaffner, a professor of preventive medicine and infectious diseases at Vanderbilt University Medical Center. "That means going to the neighborhood and knocking on doors and really aggressively trying to find cases," Schaffner said in an interview. "I don't know if they have that capacity. Many countries do not, and they don't have that tradition in their public health systems. This would be a very new thing for them to do." Another possibility is that the patients are from an elderly, more vulnerable part of the population, Schaffner said. If the virus "was introduced to a population that was older and as a consequence has a bunch of underlying illnesses, [that] could explain a high fatality rate," Schaffner said." - source - https://www.nbcnews.com/health/heal...e-coronavirus-higher-other-countries-n1142646 I probably can find peer reviewed examples showing the same concepts for virus shedding, R0 etc etc, but since we're not writing a research paper we're publishing this should work Tl;Dr - the reasons - no testing kits/not massively testing due to ability/only sickest are going to hospital and get reported/not releasing stats. From what I've read I'm betting 2-3% is accurate (I mean this % still isn't what good, I'm hoping for less than a percent if possible), but regardless I'm really hopeful of the warm weather possibility.
I asked my PhD Virologist friend straight up if society would collapse due to coronavirus. She worked at the level four bio containment lab in Galveston and her mentor was the guy who they based the Dustin Hoffman character on in the movie Outbreak. Her answer: “Data I've seen indicates that more than 80% of those infected have mild illness. 20% get really sick and 2%ish die. Most of those who die had other medical problems at the same time as the infection. When I say most I mean 99.1%. This virus is new to people. So every population it encounters is immunologically naive...so basically everyone who gets infected gets sick. Except the few that will for some reason be immune for some reason and we have no way of predicting those people. Anyway, the real problem will be that in a city like Houston, if it spreads unchecked, meaning people are ****ing stupid and go to work and school when they are sick and dont cover their mouths when they cough. It will spread like wildfire and 20% of lots of people needing hospitalization around the same time means our system is overwhelmed. And a shitload of people not working at the same time means businesses arent open etc. There are lots of mild cases being missed...despite what the ****tard said yesterday or day before. This means that people could have contact with a mild case and not know they had contact with someone with the virus. For this reason, in my opinion, we need to broaden testing criteria which I think UK did today. We.will see if that happens. So bottom line....stock up on supplies in case it starts circulating in the area and then there is a panic run on supplies and stores close. Make sure you have medicines for your family and pets if needed. Masks like surgical masks should only be worn if you have symptoms, to protect others. Masks we have access to if any, wont protect the wearer from getting exposed. Wash your hands. Make sure respiratory allergies are well controlled and that you're vaccinated for flu. No need to add those into the mix to confuse things. But. Basically wash hands. Cover coughs. Stay home. Avoid crowds. If its detected in Friendswood, then I would guess it will spread. Because unless we broaden testing, we probably won't detect the first case first, we will detect the worst case first. They could be the same but might not be. I will happily take specific questions” So if you guys want to ask some Qs, just tag me in this thread.
I believe the number of confirmed cases outside Hubei in China is actually more accurate than you think. The testing capability has already met the demand even within Hubei several days ago and the criteria for determining confirmed cases has been improved over time. The cost of withholding information also outweighs the benefit for most government officials at the moment. Outside Hubei in China, total suspected cases had dropped to 339 and new confirmed cases was 24 yesterday. Had there been a significant underestimation of >30%, I do not think the spread could be contained to this level at the moment. Your comment is based on the worst possible assumption that the very first spread started in early October. It could well be that the initial spread started in mid-November. Is there any serious scientific analysis that shows the former is more likely than the latter? The published data showed no records indicating multiple severe cases had emerged in mid-December. Here is the most recent research paper on confirmed severe cases within the designated hospital to treat COVID-19 patients. The first patient was admitted to the ICU on Dec. 24. Another article (in Chinese) published yesterday reported another patient who was admitted to the ICU of another hospital on Dec. 22. After he failed to respond to drugs, the doctor collected his sample and sent it to a commercial gene sequencing company on Dec. 24. After careful analysis, the company confirmed that it was a new virus genetically similar to SARS and reported the result to the CDC on Dec. 27. Similar results were also obtained and reported by multiple sequencing agencies in the next few days. Meanwhile, on Dec. 26, one hospital specialized in infectious disease, which became the designated hospital afterwards, received 4 patients (3 from a family) who were all linked to the seafood market and had the same symptom. After ruling out all known possibilities, the hospital director realized it could be caused by an infectious disease and reported to the CDC and other authorities on the next day. Based on all of the information, had there been multiple severe cases in mid-Dec., there should already been 50+ mild cases and it was very likely that there would already been reports around Dec. 20. So I do not think that was the case. I believe that China had reported to the WHO on time and I doubt other countries would do it much better. It was the preventive measures after the reports that could be improved. The legal consequence of both are more or less the same. However a speeding ticket definitely has a smaller mental effect. By the way, the local health commission also released information on the new virus the same day (Dec. 31) when the doctor's message spread. The difference was that the public information did not mention anything about SARS. The whistleblowers' role in the discovery of the virus was exaggerated to a certain extent by the media. There is also some merit that important information like a reemergence of SARS should only be released to the public by authorities. This is because such information, if inaccurate, can lead to widespread panic and social chaos. The government would need to make some preparations before providing guidance to the public. For example, local inventory of masks definitely could not meet the demand of a 15-million population city had masks been recommended as a preventive measure. Therefore the government would need to find a resolution to the issue before the information was released.
Yeah, this is pretty much spot on with what I've been thinking along with some others here. Also, as I stated earlier - I'm pretty sure it's most likely in the US and community spread as per here (I figured it's been here and not reported since you can pass it during incubation and afterwards for a while) - https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/26/cdc...-community-spread-coronavirus-case-in-us.html Anyway, I do worry some about overwhelming the system, the ignorance of science in the US making it a bigger issue, our current state of the "scary" vaccines that parents avoid giving their kids etc etc etc, no now we have to worry about old viruses returning/no here immunity, and also, especially people that refuse the proper handling of coughing/washing hands (I'm not a germaphobe, but washing your hands before handling/eating food, after going to the bathroom, or other times etc. isn't going to kill you). The only thing to add is the incubation period and post cure period (especially post so they don't make others sick - wash your hands people!) On a side note, I definitely know you or your friend don't need my affirmation, but I def agree with you. My degree is in neurobio, and obviously nowhere near what your friend's doing, but I have close Dr friends in various parts of the health field and feel they would make a similar assessment. I probably didn't need to mention my science background since I know it doesn't mean a lot on a forum but regardless am glad your friend didn't discover something else. I guess one question I'd be curious on and I've seen mentioned in a few spots, is - does she think the coronaviruses could eventually be similar to the flu, in that it'll be seasonal and there'll be seasonal vaccines or does she think these are always random crossover events that can happen? I guess I'm curious in that- as more coronaviruses possibly crossover would there be a model to follow/predict like we do for the flu? I haven't read up fully on coronaviruses and obviously we don't know if this version is seasonal yet (ie transmission lowers/dies out in warm weather), but was just randomly thinking about it. I'm thinking once this one goes through, they could one day be seasonal (assuming it follows the weather eventually like the flu), but I'm thinking a prediction model might be more difficult in some regards. I probably should just read more research on my own but thought it was interesting (so hopefully not a bother).
Reinfection possible and even deadlier http://archive.is/Iw58p Asymptomatic concentrate virions at nose, more infectious http://archive.is/RypEi SARS-CoV mechanism for antibody-dependent enhancement http://doi.org/10.1128/JVI.02015-19
This will be a long battle against misinformation. I'm glad there are folks on the lines. https://www.poynter.org/fact-checki...tries-are-fighting-3-waves-of-misinformation/
