Reality check... According to roster resource the Astros payroll sits at 219 million in actual dollars and 238 million in luxury tax dollars. They are using MLBtraderumors estimated arbitration numbers in their calculations. This is before we sign one single free agent. They need to move salary to add anyone and they have no chance at keeping Cole without dumping 2 of Reddick, Brantley, or Springer. Sanchez is going to make nearly 6 million in arbitration and won't be ready for the start of the season. I'm not sure the Astros will pay him that much for the chance he recovers and pitches well after shoulder surgery for half a season.
I don’t give a damn what the payroll sits at right now. Unless you are Jim Crane (you’re not), you have no idea whether he’s willing to spend into the luxury tax for a season or two until Verlander and Greinke’s contracts fall off the books along with Reddick, Brantley, etc. The Astros don’t have to trade anyone to afford Cole if Jim Crane decides it’s worth a short-term pocketbook hit, and he’s proven he’s not a penny pincher like Tilman Fertitta. Also, if Cole does opt to leave, I guarantee they either sign a quality FA pitcher (Bumgarner, Wheeler, Ryu) or they move prospects to get someone they like. Also, I guarantee the Astros are not trading Brantley or Springer this offseason. No chance. This I agree with. There is a real possibility the Astros opt to non-tender Sanchez.
I saw some articles that mentioned he could return in the 2nd half of next season. True that means no set up backs for shoulder rehab that requires really good luck. The FO's question is whether that chance is worth betting $5 million in arbitration, or spending that money elsewhere.
If he’s going to miss half the season, I bet the Astros non-tender him. They can use that five million towards signing someone like Ryu, Wheeler, Bumgarner, Alex Wood, etc, if Cole walks. Or add that to their offer for Cole.
Makes sense to pass on him. Astros will definitely offer Cole. but all those other options are easily still in the $20 million range. I find it a bit surprising they would offer that amount to that group of SP's.
I’m curious what @Nook thinks the Astros do. If I had to guess, they probably won’t do much except sign a catcher(s), re-sign Harris/Smith/another RP, and maybe another budget SP or two. The only player in FA I’d be okay with giving big money to is Strasburg, but I don’t think the Astros will make a big splash this off-season at least.
Alex Wood would not be in the 20 million range. No chance. He’s a lottery ticket, like Sanchez was. Ryu, Bumgarner and Wheeler I can see getting that AAV, but teams are being more frugal in paying veteran FA pitchers.
I wouldn’t bring back any of them. Look at the ages. Might be a good opportunity to inject some youth into the roster.
I think Wheeler can get close to that AAV. I would be surprised if Bumgarner got that. He's basically Dallas Keuchel at this point. His season wasn't much better than Miley's even after Miley melted down. No idea what Ryu can get. He had a great season but has injury problems and will be almost 33 at the start of the season. By the way... I picked Mancini as a trade target because the Astros tried to acquire him at the deadline. They obviously like him.
If the Astros want to bring Sanchez back I would like to see a 1 year deal for 4 million with a team option for 8 million on a second year with a 1 million dollar buyout. You say look, you recover from the injury and then we turn you into an elite pitcher. You will still be a free agent at age 29 like Gerrit Cole. Or.. go somewhere else with your bum shoulder.
Dream scenario Sign Zack Wheeler and Alex Wood (lotto ticket, hopefully can stay healthy and be Miley 2.0 without the late season collapse) Trade Reddick + Toro and Armenteros to CHW for Gavin Sheets (Yuli's heir apparent) and $$$ relief Trade/non-tender Peacock and Marisnick (Straw can replace for less $$$) Let Maldy walk, sign Grandal, and resign Chirinos for 1 year Grandal catches Wood (familiarity), Wheeler, and LMJ. Chirinos is JV's personal catcher and backup Greinke's starts are split. Extend Smitty for 1 year. Let Harris, Rondon, and McHugh (THANK YOU!!!!!) walk Sign Pomeranz as LHR, as well as either Moreland or Smoak as a cheap veteran LH thumper bat Trade Correa to Tampa for Liberatore, Cronenworth (future SS?) and Baz Springer CF Altuve 2B Brantley LF Bregman SS Gurriel 3B Alvarez DH Moreland/Smoak 1B Grandal C Tucker RF Bench: Chirinos, Straw, Cronenworth, Diaz Rotation: JV, Greinke, Wheeler, LMJ, Wood Pen: Osuna, Pressly, James, Urquidy, Smitty, Abreu, Pomeranz, whoever wins the last spot in ST No, not gonna happen, but just my fantasy