Yeah, I remember that. It was a Bush-league mentality, the Astros needed to build that chemistry; which they were going to do with good faith efforts towards their races horses. So you get one year more of arbitration, at the expense of some burnt bridges.... As fans it sucks when out favorite player leave for richer contracts, but it’s overall good for the league to spread the talent. MLB has a system in place if your best guys leave you MAY get young assets as compensation. So the development process starts all over again, but eh 4 years fly by a lot faster than I’d want....
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/10/astros-rumors-luxury-tax-gerrit-cole.html MLBTR reads clutchfans. I think if they get rid of Reddick they can just slide under the cap. But the fact remains that they are unlikely to be able replace their good free agents without going over the cap. But the more I learn the more I believe there’s no real penalty unless a team goes WAY over or goes over more than 2 seasons in a row. Looking at today’s roster, here are the pending free agents and their projected replacement: Chirinos TBD Maldonado TBD (Stubbs) Cole : TBD (Whitley, Framber) Miley : McCullers Harris : TBD (C Perez, Ferrell, Deetz) Rondon : Abreu Smith : Peacock/Devenski/Biagini
Well, your projected replacements are assuming a bit--like no trading and no FA acquisitions. While Crane and co. will have their work cut out if they really want to stay under the tax, I fully expect us to replace at LEAST 3-4 of our impending FAs with external options.
My current expectation is: 1. Trade Reddick with a couple 3rd tier prospects to get some financial wiggle room. 2. Acquire a pre-arb late inning reliever (Barlow?) using 2nd and 3rd tier pitching prospects (try to replicate the Pressly trade). 3. Resign Chirinos to something like $10M/2yr. 4. Wait out free agency and sign someone desperate (Maldonado?) or trade for a cheap backup catcher (Narvaez?). 5. Wait out free agency and sign a cheap veteran starting pitcher whose market doesn’t materialize and/or is desperate to pitch for a contender; otherwise, trade for a salary dump starter (Samardzija? Duffy?). 6. Non-tender or trade players to get under the tax (order of preference: Sanchez, Biagini, Devenski, Peacock, Marisnick, Diaz).
My expectations that I consider realistic: 1. Resign both Chirinos and Maldanado. Luhnow should have learned by now that it is incredibly important to have quality C's on the roster, especially given our other elite options across the board on offense. Both of these players WANT to be here and both should come in on a short-term contract given their age. IF we win the WS, I see them staying. I think we can get both for 2 years and 15 mill total. Stubbs needs to stay as our AAA backup. 2. Trade Reddick and Devo and a couple of B level prospects in order to free up $, while also taking back a couple lower level prospects in return. 3. Resign Harris to a 3 yr, 18 mill contract. 4. Make a real pitch to keep Cole, but if he signs elsewhere for more $, go the Miley/Morton-type route and save $. If Cole resigns, non-tender Sanchez.
Sanchez should be non tendered completely and totally independently of any other moves. He won’t be back in time to do anything for us. The only thing other than non-tendering him that would make sense is some manner of extension like a 3/15 million type contract where he gets paid to rehab himself and stay with an organization, as opposed to being out of baseball and hoping to come back. But no, they aren’t going through the arbitration process with him.
No it doesn’t. The Astros aren’t keeping him around, for any dollar amount, to rehab for the entirety of his walk year. He’s extended or gone. Full stop. It’s a 12-15 month recovery time.
Nope. I was wondering why the back and forth. Thought maybe I must be missing something on the timeline of the rehab or something. I know it’s not a common surgery, but the last guy who had it done was like 14 months and I heard Luhnow say “he will likely miss most of next season” which in Astros injury speak means, “the patient is likely terminal”
Houston has ~30 extra pitchers slated for full season ball next season, and most of those are viable prospects it would be a shame to release. That feeds my thinking that Houston can use pitching prospects to trade for a good late inning reliever and a backup catcher. Save all the money to use on a starting pitching and starting catcher. 5 trade targets for backup catcher: Omar Narvaez Willians Austudillo Reese McGuire Curt Casali Tom Murphy 5 free agent catcher targets: Chirinos Grandal Castro Avila Maldonado 5 Cole-esque targets: Robbie Ray Jon Gray Daniel Norris Dylan Bundy Jake Odorizzi 5 Verlander-Greinke-esque targets: Hamels Price Bumgarner Porcello Samardzija 5 Morton-esque targets: Jordan Lyles Andrew Cashner Kyle Gibson Brett Anderson Homer Bailey 5 Pressly-esque targets: Scott Barlow Scott Oberg Andrew Chafin Braden Shipley Buck Farmer
The chronicle article on Chirinos and Verlander last week mentioned Alex Avila caught all but one of Verlander’s starts in his best year with the tigers. I would be thrilled with a Chirinos/Avila platoon next season. Avila also caught Greinke in Arizona this season.
If we could swing Austudillo for cheap, I would be all over that. I don't know their situation with Castro through. Minnys best catching platoon going forward would be Garver and Austudillo. I do like Avila as a fa signing as well.
MLBTR posted arbitration estimates: Astros (10) George Springer – $21.4MM Brad Peacock – $4.6MM Jake Marisnick – $3.0MM Aaron Sanchez – $5.6MM Lance McCullers Jr. – $4.1MM Carlos Correa – $7.4MM Roberto Osuna – $10.2MM Chris Devenski – $2.0MM – club option for $2.825MM Joe Biagini – $1.5MM Aledmys Diaz – $2.4MM Sanchez is sure to be non-tendered. I have 2020 payroll (not aav) at $206M for the projected 26 man roster (includes Reddick, but not Sanchez). Dealing Reddick seems like a foregone conclusion. My prediction is if they win it all, they will go over the tax in 2020-2021 and sign a top SP (Cole), extend Springer, and add good C and RP. If they don’t win it all, they will stay under the tax, giving them ~$15M to spend to fill holes at SP, C, and RP (assuming they dump Reddick and Sanchez). That would require some bargain shopping (Cashner/Lyles types at SP) or using prospects to trade for cheaper good players. Good news is that even if they have to stay under the tax, the rosters for 2020-2021 still profile to win ~105 games (assuming they get right up to the tax threshold both years), and the 2022-2023 rosters profile for ~90 wins, with ~$130M in payroll room in 2022 and ~$90M in 2023.
For luxury tax purposes, Astros appear to be ~$220M with keeping everyone except Sanchez, adding player benefits ($15M), and rounding out 40-man roster ($4M). For actual money, I get $221M including the player benefits money, $206M without. Assuming adding catcher, RP and dropping Reddick's contract is a net zero in dollars, adding Cole would bring cost to $266 actual money and $253M for tax purposes.
The Astros almost got Avila in a trade last year. Also unless it doesn’t work financially, Astros development team is high on Lyles and will target him.
Trade Brantley, Reddick, and Greinke Resign Cole Trade for Trey Mancini resign Chirinos/Maldonado resign Will Harris sign a Miley type CF Springer 2B Altuve 3B Bregman DH Alvarez LF Mancini 1B Gurriel SS Correa RF Tucker C Chirinos Marisnick Straw Diaz Maldonado Verlander Cole McCullers Urquidy FA/Whitley/James/Abreu/Javier Osuna Pressly Harris James Abreu Devenski Peacock Biagini
Whit Merrifield and Mikhael Trout are the only big name guys i look at. Altuve or Springer and Correa for Trout, an absolute game changer who you cannot pitch around in this lineup and performs in all situations against anyone. Angels don't have pitching to go anywhere for a long time and they owe it to him. Trade Greinke and Reddick, resign Cole at $200 million over 6, look for gems. Win or lose WS I make the leap to trout.
jesus i cant imagine what this subsection will look like if the Astros lose tomorrow. For gods sakes please dont lose tomorrow so we dont have an invasion of GARM posters.