Carlos Correa really needs to go to Mexico and get stem cell injection in the offseason. Get properly healed or he will become like Tracy McGrady. Carted off in a stretcher.
Unfortunately we haven't had many opportunities to see those numbers for any extended period of time. Time for him to shut everyone up, and ball out in the playoffs.
we have. they just come to a halt ever seemingly so often once he does put up numbers for stretches here's to a healthy 4 weeks of correa
Yep, no sane person would question his talent level. 70 grades on power, arm, and glove. 55 grade at least on hit tool and plate discipline and running. He’s averaged 5 fWAR per 150 games, and a lot of that came while battling injuries and/or breaking into the league as a 20 year old. There’s a reason people threw out $300M as a goal for him in free agency. And a healthy productive Correa over the next 2 seasons will probably have him back in that range. I’m just not counting on it at this point.
He isn’t a bad guy. He has volunteered numerous times and donated money. He is mostly just viewed as a dumb ass by MMP employees. He doesn’t always think things through and makes questionable decisions but I’ve never heard anyone say he is mean or nasty or unpleasant.
Had he not had the rib injury.... would the back issue have shown up earlier this year than it did? These are the questions they'll use to determine the long-term nature of this process.
There is no doctor that can conclusively give you an answer to that question. They can take MRI's, C-scan's, nerve conduction tests and compare the films to the prior films...... but that is it. He obviously has subjective complaints but those cannot really be measured medically. He has some degree of nerve root impingement as well...... but that is even hard to measure in relation to Correa's complaints. What we do know is: 53, 52, 87 ............ the number of games he has missed the previous three seasons for someone that turned 25 years old last week. At some point Correa and the Astros and his doctor's will need to make a decision on whether or not there needs to be invasive treatment. Since he is barely 25 years old, surgeons are very apprehensive to operate on someone's back absent a disc collapse.
I'm more aware of all of this than most... this is partly what I do. If there's not a structural issue present, then no operation is going to be necessary. Rest did "fix" the issue, as he was swinging the bat tremendously till the freak rib injury. And that's my point. The Astros will withstand the freak injures (the broken leg, the thumb, the rib) that have plagued him almost every season of his professional career... and there are scores of examples of players (including some on the Astros) that eventually stopped having freak/isolated injuries. The chronic version of things (presuming its isolated, and unrelated to anything else he was doing) is unpredictable. It still doesn't make any sense to trade him for less value now... nor does it make sense to increase whatever extension offer they've already given him to coerce him to sign. Both parties should be more than happy to let these next 2 years play out and see where they are then. Astros fans need to stop obsessing about him one way or the other... and yes, players missing lots of games at age 25 is a huge red flag no matter what... but his body is young enough to actually get over some of this and heal in a way that guys 10 years old are incapable of.
I do love the irony of the pro-trade Correa crowd. They want to trade him because it isn't a guarantee that he can play while a trade guarantees he won't play for Astros.
I've been a Correa defender, and still think trading him is unlikely to be a net positive, buts it's something I've come around on. The fact that we have a guy in Bregman we can slide over to SS leaves us equipped to lose him. He was by no means terrible last postseason, but he clearly wasn't at Correa level. If he has another injury related less than awesome postseason, how much can the franchise really trust him? The playoffs are all that matter for this juggernaut, and we aren't sure how useful he'll be in said playoffs (or if he won't miss a ton of regular season games if regular season wins do become an issue). We're all obviously hoping he can play at his superstar level, but is anybody confident we're gonna see stud Correa? It's almost impossible to lose Correa and improve your ceiling, but if we can get a lesser but good MLB pitcher/player to replace Correa, free up 10 million to spend on another player or 2, and prospects we can use to address another future hole at a later date it may be the safer move. Not something I'm hoping for, or expecting, but it's become a much more realistic option than it was a few months ago. Lets just hope he dominates and we win another chip so the only complaints will be about how good he'll look in pinstripes.
I would guess the number of star players who missed 50+ games in 3 consecutive seasons prior to age 25 that then went on to play 130+ games for 5+ consecutive seasons with star level production is exceedingly small. That track record of recurring injuries, “freak” or otherwise, does not bode well for a long productive career.
It "seems" safe... but really neither Correa's salary, perceived value, or roster spot prevents Luhnow currently from making any of those moves as it is, and you lose the potential production of an elite offensive and defensive talent (even this contracted year by him featured valuable contributions) for the next 2 years of Verlander/Greinke/prime Altuve/Prime Springer... expected contention. You're not going to get a high level prospect for him at the moment... nor are you going to get an established MLB younger pitcher/player with extreme upside. You may get another team's talented player with a different set of flaws/question marks... and it becomes a gamble/experiment for both sides. And if he does have a stellar post-season after 2 weeks of rest, compounded by his stellar first half with an off-season of rest, I tend to look at things more optimistically just given his age. Young guys tend to heal faster, regardless of the injury.
I represent doctor's in medical malpractice claims so like you, I know a good deal about the back. Like you said, the concern is the back and it has become a chronic condition at this point. Did rest really fix the underlying issue with his back? I haven't seen his medical records obviously, but I would argue that it did not fix the underlying condition as he has had back concerns resurface less than a year later. As far as there being or not being a structural issue, if someone has back pain long enough, and complains long enough.... there are doctors that will operate after every amount of conservative treatment has failed. If Correa misses time next year it is possible Correa decides to go this route but it is something that everyone will attempt to avoid. Yes there are players that have a history of fluke injuries that eventually straighten out and stop happening. The concern with a fluke injury is really the degree of damage done cumulatively. I could see dealing Correa if the Astros were going to get a premium, but that isn't the case. Right now no one is going to trade a lot for him. When he is healthy, he is an elite player and at barely 25 years old he can even improve. Unfortunately though, the Astros will have to not count on him until he proves he can stay healthy. There are still some treatment options available and I suspect that Correa and the Astros will exhaust all options short of surgery this Winter.
Yeah that isn't a truthful depiction of the pro trade Correa crowd. The whole idea of trading Correa is with the idea that the Astros can get a good return for him that can help the team on the field and provide some level of financial benefit from the free agent market. I think it would be wise for the Astros to quietly see what his value is this winter. However I also expect that his value will not be high enough to trade him, as everyone knows he has a chronic back issue and that he has missed over a full season of games over the last 3 seasons.
Right. No one is advocating dumping Correa for a mediocre return. The idea is that if another team values him highly due to his superstar potential and after reviewing his medicals is willing to give up a premium package of talent for him, it might make sense for the Astros to do it. Another way of looking at it; assuming they have money set aside to extend him, which package would you rather have over the next 7 seasons: 1. Carlos Correa for $210M (2 arb years plus 5 FA years) 2. Gerrit Cole (7 FA years), Brent Honeywell (6 controlled years), and Vidal Brujan (6 controlled years) (along with more Abraham Toro or Myles Straw) for $240M I think the 2nd package has a lot more value to Houston.
