Things I don’t care about: 20,000 at a rally in New York. 20,000 at a rally in PA, OH, WI or MI? Now we’re talking. Wake me up when that happens.
If I gambled, I'd bet on Warren. I'm not keen on all her big government proposals, but she looks like she'll be the winner in the end. More coherent than Biden and feels more safe than Sanders even if her ideas are just as radical.
Well, there isn't evidence directly related to Biden in this election. There is evidence that gaffes hurt a candidate in the general election. We can look at Dukakis in the tank for a tactical gaffe. We can also look at the history of the increase in scrutiny of candidates once the primaries are over and there are only two candidates. We can look at the difference of ratings of debates in primary debates and General election debates.
The rules are changed since Trump. You can't look at anything historically during this election cycle. I agree Biden would be a mediocre candidate in any other election but yet his poll numbers are still rising even when all the media talks about are his gaffes.
But people aren't really paying that much attention right now. Not only will people pay attention later, but more people will also pay attention to the race.
How do you know people aren't paying attention now? And why are you so sure Warren will withstand that attention that is not being given? Please provide this data.
She's easily the most energetic, most passionate, and most articulate about her proposals. Will be interesting to see how her ground game works in the early primaries. But I would bet she's one of the better organized candidates as well. Counts for something in a campaign. I still think she could lose to the current POTUS in 2020.
The ratings for the Democratic debates. Warren has a track record of increasing popularity the longer she is in a race and outperforming expectations. The evidence is past performance in elections as well as from the current campaign. I can't remember, but I think her approval rating from her current job approval as well. I could be wrong on that one. edit::::: Sorry I forgot to add the polls where she was behind Brown in the polls and came back. https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2...senate-race/T6pJa8IO5hv7fqHUTdQ5SO/story.html https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/201...abeth-warren-by-25-points-in-recent-poll.html This poll had Warren down by 25 points. https://www.huffpost.com/entry/elizabeth-warren-scott-brown-poll_n_1538034 - she pulls even. https://www.masslive.com/politics/2012/10/wne_poll_elizabeth_warren_main.html - Here she has pulled ahead. And we know that in the end she won.
I saw a poll yesterday on the news (NBC) and a second today: Biden +6 -- Warren +7 -- Bernie and Harris -2. Just one poll, but it matches the overall trend. Edit: Saw another Biden +5 -- Warren +6 -- Bernie +1 -- Harris -7
Elizabeth Warren does better the longer she is involved as she becomes more comfortable and less wooden. it just takes her awhile to connect with people, but when she does she is usually liked. I agree that she could easily lose to Trump. For one, I would expect her to be wooden and not comfortable against Trump initially if she won the primary. Over time she would loosen up, but it could be too late. She also is radical for middle America and for older Americans. Her calls to pay off student loans and some of her other positions could alienate moderate Democrats. Having said that she is actually competent. She is someone that I believe is prepared (unlike GWB/Trump), won't be morally compromised or **** someone other than their spouse (unlike Clinton/Trump) and is intelligent (unlike Trump). So even though I do not agree with her on some very important issues, I respect her. After some of the recent abortions in the White House it would be nice to have someone with integrity and isn't ignorant.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...ratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html#polls This is what I check to see the polling averages, it usually takes somewhere between 5 to 10 of the most recent reputable national poles, and then averages them together.
I posted earlier in this thread (or one like it) that she's more professorial than folksy and will have a hard time winning over middle America. I don't think she's Hillary, but I bet Trump will pull similar stops if he ran against her. Maybe in these days, authenticity doesn't matter as much. Middle Americans dont care about details as much (probably because the smallest details didn't target them), but they need to know they're being taken care of. Which is harder from an ROI perspective compared to a densely populated region. She's still got time to crack the margins. I liken to Biden more carpenter than president.
It was pretty smart on her part. Actually meeting the citizens and there was no violence or nastiness. I am sure there will be protestors next time but it worked well this time.
This is apparently normal for her - she won't leave an event until everyone who wants selfies gets one, regardless of how long it takes. This isn't going to work as well as her events keep growing. Everyone I know who's been to one of her events says they come out more impressed than when they entered, so I think the in-person connection does wonders for her.