The Astros have added Justin Verlander (for a full season), Gerrit Cole (imstead of Fiers) and Joe Smith (over Gregerson) and are adding Brad Peacock to the bullpen. The Astros pitching should be substantially better than last year. Would I like the Astros to add a stud reliever to close? Yes but the cost is very high and internal options (Peacock and Morton) are very good. The Astros pitching staff (on paper) is exceptional and vastly superior to last year. On offense a lot of projections believe the Astros young players like Bregman, Correa and Gurriel will all improve. I think Reddick or McCann could be candidates to regress. Personally I would like another really solid bat added to the line up. However the Astros should still have a very good offense. Also this off season has been the slowest developing in decades. There is no reason to believe the Astros are done. The Astros have a lot of moving pieces (Fisher/Gonzalez/Marisnick) and I expect them to add at least another solid bat. Last all the additions don’t have to be made before April. The Astros can always add a bat before the deadline. Hell for all we know, Whitley is in the rotation by June or July and Morton is closing.
There are still several FA's that are out there and with spring training literally less than a month away, we could land a player on a one year rental. I agree we could use another bat but I think people overlook where our core could be even better this upcoming season. Bergman started off very slow last year but completely turned it on. Correa is only getting to get better. I expect Springer and Altuve to continue to do well. I think Marwin could regress some but the offense will be there as a whole. We still have prospects to make an additional move and I would expect Jeff Luhnow to be aggressive if need be during the trading deadline. If our pitching does as expected, we will be just fine. Nothing is guaranteed by any means but we are positioned so well for this upcoming season.
It looks favorable on paper that the team has parted with many of the low-OPS guys from last season (Beltran, Aoki, Centeno, Maybin), but of course "upgrading by subtraction" is not really upgrading. if Gattis can demonstrate that he can hit as a DH, that would be an upgrade... if he can't, Tyler White deserves a shot at DH. The offensive production at C looks like it could be weak -- McCann only put up a .219 average in the second half of 2017, and it's hard to predict what kind of bat Stassi will bring. And while the FO seems to think Fisher will hit this year, at what point does the team cut bait if he doesn't? I'd give Gattis and Fisher 150 AB's each to show they can contribute at least .750 OPS, otherwise it's time to bring in an internal replacement like White for DH or Kemmer for LF, or make a trade. Last season, Gattis maintained a >.750 OPS only two months of the season (March and July) and Fisher never really got it together in spite of having a really impressive first 50 AB'S or so. If Luhnow picks up one or two of Lucroy/Realmuto/JDMartinez/Cain and allows Stassi/Fisher to be organizational depth in Fresno, that would be an upgrade for 2018 but then you have to weigh the financial and opportunity costs down the road. On the other hand if Luhnow thinks Gattis/Fisher/Stassi can contribute above-average offense right away, I'll be happy to see the team make any necessary adjustments in July.
1) last year the Astros offense was one of the best of all time. Upgrades aren't really necessary. 2) 150 ab's is a really small sample to cut bait on someone.
I think you'd have to look at those 150 AB's in conjunction with what Gattis and Fisher did last year. Like I mentioned, Gattis was pretty uninspiring at the plate for most of 2017 (and awful when batting as DH - in fact his OPS was lower than Beltran's). Fisher had 166 PA's last season and was one of the weakest bats on the roster in that time. I'm all for giving him more chances in spite of that, but the problem with waiting till Fisher has a really huge sample size of ML plate appearances (say 600 or 1000) is that we could end up carrying him as an offensive handicap for the entire season, the same way we did with Beltran in 2017 -- but without the mentoring/coaching value that Beltran provided. Given the state of the competition, the Astros could carry two or three offensive duds this year and probably still win the division. But seeing as how we won the ALCS and the WS only by the skin of our teeth, it makes sense to get the offense as awesome as possible during the regular season so that last-minute, untried improvements in August aren't necessary. By "cutting bait" with Fisher, I mean sending him to Fresno to provide depth and make improvements, not releasing him from the team. Even if he falters in April/May, I'd be glad to see him back as a September call-up.
Thanks for reminding me. Makes me wonder whether Stubbs might get some time at MMP this season (especially if there is no trade or FA acquisition).
Gattis is a proven veteran and can indeed hit. No idea why you would judge him by 150 ABs. Why does our backup catcher (Stassi) need to be above average offensively? Fisher's leash depends on 1) Is the team winning 2) Does he look overmatched 3) Is Jake Marisnick hitting again 4) Is Kyle Tucker forcing the issue
Y'all ambushed me, I'm not quoting each one lol. @bobrek insightful comment! @Joe Joe Agree with everything you said. I still want to be greedy and add to the lineup! @Redfish81 agree with a lot of what you said, but "They have to be smart and go for it now without sacrificing the whole future." -- that, to me, means we should be going after Yelich. That may not be what Crane mean, but it should've been. You're not sacrificing our future trading Kyle Tucker+. Why not be proactive now and get someone like him instead of waiting? Odds are, he's not there at the deadline. Maybe we can trade for a Carlos Gomez type then I don't think Marwin can repeat last year, but I hope I'm wrong. Would love Marwin as DH/rotating IF. @juicystream and 0 IP in the postseason. Cool stats, hope Rondon follows them. @Nook you and I agree on the bigger points. Would really love an addition to lineup. @pw1993 agree- hope we can add another bat to the lineup. @xcrunner51 "Upgrades aren't really necessary." -- Yikes. Exactly what I'm trying to protect against- complacency. Daryl Morey would be ashamed of you. To be clear, I'm not criticizing the Astros. I'm saying that I hope they're not done and they add another bat to the lineup. I'm well aware of @bobrek's calendar -- we have plenty of time for a trade or deal to materialize. I hope one does!
There are only 7 players on the projected 25 man roster who do not have a season on their resume where they either put up 3+ fWAR or had 10+ saves: Marisnick, Stassi, Fisher, Gurriel, Gattis (worth 3.0 bWAR in 2016), Devenski (2017 all-star), and Sipp. Verlander has 9 seasons of 3+ fWAR McCann has 6 seasons of 3+ fWAR Altuve 4 Correa 3 Springer 3 McHugh 3 Keuchel 2 Cole 2 Reddick 2 Marwin 4.1 fWAR last season Bregman 3.8 fWAR last season Peacock 3.4 fWAR last season Morton 3.3 fWAR last season McCullers 3.0 fWAR last season Giles 3 seasons of 10+ saves Rondon 3 Smith 15 SV in 2014 Harris 12 SV in 2016 Only 76 position players and 39 pitchers had 3+ fWAR last season. Only 40 relievers had at least 10 saves. This team has a legendary amount of talent, depth, and experience. If they don’t make a single additional move prior to opening day, they will still be favored to win the AL and likely favored to win it all.
The Astros won 101 games and the World Series, with the best offense and one of the best rotations in baseball with a few guys having breakout career years. Expecting to do much better than that is unrealistic. Gerrit Cole doesn't have to be better than Peacock, because he's still here. But I'm pretty sure he will at least be better than what Musgrove and Paulino were last season (an ERA over 6 in 21 starts). He stabilizes the hell out of our rotation, and if he regains form, which is a realistic possibility, he most certainly is a big upgrade. A full season of Justin Verlander instead of Mike Fiers is probably gonna help a little is well.
I wouldn't be judging Gattis only by his first 150 AB's of 2018. I'd be judging him also in the context of his 110 AB's as DH in 2017 (for which he hit .580 OPS) and the fact that for four months of the 2017 season he hit below the ML-average OPS of .750 (often times not even coming close to that mark). I'm all for giving him a chance at DH, but I can't see any reason to tolerate him past May if he's doing to DH in 2018 the same way he did in 2017. When you are trying to build a Super Team / WS Team, you try to get all your players contributing at an above-average level. That goal might not be possible to realize, but you get as close to it as you can. I think Stassi will impress fans in a positive way, but if he were to be replaced by a FA acquisition in the offseason, I would trust the FO's judgment on that since they know Max a lot better than I do.
Going through his splits, one thing keeps jumping off the page. The fact that he hits so much better when Catching vs the DH. It doesnt make any sense to me and maybe its just a statistical aberration. But even averaging the last 3 years together, not just last year, you get more than a .200 point differential in OPS (.709 vs .936) http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/splits/_/id/32863/type/batting3 My point being, if we get 2015-17 Catcher Gattis, I am all in. But if we get 2015-17 DH Gattis, we will need to upgrade.
When he catches, he's healthy enough to catch. Sometimes when he DHs, he's banged up, but can still swing a bat.
Some players need to be on the field half the game as defenders in order to stay focused. I think Gattis mentioned this once in an interview with Julia. Perhaps boredom is an issue for some guys if they are sitting in the dugout most of the time and really just spend 15 minutes on the field taking 4 to 5 ab's... maybe a few minutes more when they reach base and get to run.
He admits that some of this is mental. I've heard this voiced by other players as well: it's tough to just sit around watching the game and then go up to hit every 2-3 innings. Some guys are good at it, some guys are much better when they're in the field too. eta: and what ^he said^
Very rarely does one thing fully explain something. DHs generally perform worse than in the field. Gattis's split differential from other positions to DH is extreme at about three times the average. I suspect health is a big part of why he is so bad at DH compared to the average performance drop at DH.
Get Yelich and Realmuto without giving up Whitley and we are the best offense in the history of Baseball. Pair that with our 7-8 deep rotation and we are the best roster of all time. I don't care if we give up all of our Top ten besides Whitley to get there. We aren't re-signing DK and Gonzalez. With a couple of World Series in a row, we will be able to re-sign Altuve and Correa. Yelich replaces Springer, somewhat. We'll have to re-build the minor leagues but we will have 3-5 years to do it. We are talking dynasty here. Go for it!!!!
Spoiler: Yelich The Marlins have conveyed to Christian Yelich that they will listen to trade offers but have given him no assurances that they will fulfill his trade request, a source fully briefed on the situation said Thursday evening. Yelich is displeased with the Marlins’ trading of Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna and Dee Gordon and is disinterested in being part of a long rebuilding program. But he is planning to report to spring training, if he isn’t traded, and has no intention of staging an NFL-style holdout, which would be highly unusual for baseball, according to sources. A few other things we’ve heard: ▪ A bunch of teams have given the Marlins proposals. One team that spoke to the Marlins said they were asking for way too much several weeks ago but now have become “more reasonable” in their demands. ▪ At this point, Yelich is strongly leaning toward attending FanFest, which is mandatory. ▪ One team said the Marlins, in Yelich talks, expressed a preference for more developed prospects who are in Double A or above. The Marlins want multiple prospects from a team’s list of Top 10 prospects. ▪ The Marlins initially tried to sell Yelich on the idea of staying and being a part of this rebuild but haven’t done so in several weeks. CEO Derek Jeter has said he has no need to reach out to Yelich. ▪ As Peter Gammons reported, a source briefed on the situation confirmed the Marlins asked the Braves for top outfield prospect Ronald Acuna in a package for Yelich, but the Braves said no. Atlanta, which covets Yelich, has three players in MLB Pipeline’s latest ranking of the top 10 left-handed pitching prospects: Luiz Gohara (No. 4), Kolby Allard (No. 7) and Max Fried (No. 10). They’ve also got highly-regarded right handed pitching prospects in Kyle Wright and Mike Soroka. ▪ But the Braves have plenty of competition. As ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick noted, the Blue Jays, Braves, Dodgers, Angels, Padres, D-backs and Phillies are among other teams that have inquired about Yelich, 26, who’s a career .290 hitter. ▪ One team that spoke to the Marlins said Miami tried to get a third team involved because it liked that team’s prospects better. But a two-team trade seems more likely. ▪ Yelich is due $7 million, $9.75 million, $12.5 million and $14 million over the next four seasons, with a $15 million team option in 2022. http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/barry-jackson/article195576169.html
