If Giles makes you nervous, Britton will make you freak out with 1.70 WHIP and 0.330+ BAA this year. He's not remotely in a groove yet, and he's given up lots of baserunners since coming back from the DL. Brad Brach is still closing for the Orioles as a result. He's not coming to the Astros as a closer.
Well obviously. No one is pulling their starter if they're going well just for the sake of pulling them. Some of us are just saying that maybe giving up top level prospects for a SP that isn't a TOR-type isn't as good of an idea as bolstering the pen. Gray and Verlander don't make this team appreciably better over adding Keuchel and McHugh and a couple new arms to the pen...especially when one of those SP we're talking about is absolutely horrible against one of the teams we're likely to face in the playoffs.
I agree with not going after mid-tier SPs. But the post I quoted was specifically talking about having lots of relievers so the SP doesn't have to go as long. There was another post about a 9 man bullpen in the playoffs. Plenty of people have talked about having SPs go 4 or 5 innings followed by endless elite relievers as the new strategy and future trend. I don't think it works as well as they think it will.
He would be brought in to be they lock down closer in the playoffs. He could pitch in the 5th inning until he gets right for all I care. If he gets brought in, and if he returns to form, he will close when it matters.
The Astros aren't going to run him out there in middle relief and then bench the closer who helped them get to the best record in the league when the playoffs roll around, any more than they would bench Giles for Devo in the same scenario. Only way Giles isn't closing in the playoffs tihs year is if he gets hurt or he performs poorly this second half. If he continues at his current pace, he'll be the closer. Britton, if he regains form, will be a high-leverage bridge reliever, probably pushing Harris and Gregerson down a notch. It's just like Andrew Miller last season not replacing Cody Allen (or this year, for that matter).
Houston getting Verlander, Wilson, and Britton is starting to feel like a Luhnow move. Thinking Martes and a 3rd tier guy would go to Baltimore, and F Perez, Musgrove, and 3 2nd tier guys go to Detroit.
The only way Giles would remain closer is if Britton continued to falter. If both were at the top of their game Britton is the better closer, therefore he will replace Giles.
I share your concerns about Britton. While he has avoided giving up lots of runs in his post-DL appearances (only 2 ER allowed on 8 hits and 2 walks in 6 IP), he has yet to demonstrate that he is anywhere back to the form that earned him his reputation. And when people say they are ready to give up Martes, or Whitley, or KTuck to get Britton, it is mainly because of his *name*, not what his recent performance suggests he would contribute to the Astros. Ordinarily, I'd be willing to sit back and wait for Britton to prove that he's got the mojo back, but the trade deadline is only 10 days away so there really isn't time for that. It's why I'd be looking elsewhere. Granted, Luhnow would have access to Britton's confidential medical files and those would shed some light on his readiness to pitch in the second half of the season, but based on the publicly-available information, I'd have to take a raincheck on Britton. Relief pitchers are notoriously streaky so I say go with a hot hand and dont' worry too much about long-term team control since you want to allow for a case where the guy just explodes next year (a la Tony Sipp from 2015 to 2016).
But will Britton be healthy? Is he healthy? He's only had 2 hitless outings this year, 1 early in the year and 1 since coming off the DL. His K% is way down. His BB% is up. His GB% is down (though still elite). Definitely have to consider it though. There are only a handful of guys with his kind of track record and none of those other guys are available.
Agree with what you are saying, but if we are trading for Britton (especially giving up Martes) it will be to be the closer.
I would trust Luhnow to make that judgment and use his recent injury as leverage. I'm sure we would figure out any problem health wise and mechanically to get him back to being elite. Give him some rest, place him on the DL but get him up and running by SEPT. I'm at the point where I don't care if we don't add a starter (even though I would love it if it's the right guy). I want elite bullpen guys as the fallback and go the Royals route where if we have a lead in the 6th.. It's over.
Last year in the World Series, no starter averaged more than 6 innings a start. Royals employed a reliever heavy strategy in 2015.
In last year's WS, the division of IP between starters and relievers was this: CLE – Total of 63.0 IP, of which SP’s covered 30.2 IP (48.5%) and RP’s covered 32.1 IP (51.5%) CHC – Total of 62.2 IP, of which SP’s covered 36.2 IP (59%) and RP’s covered 26.0 IP (41%) If the Astros can be ready to throw for 75 or so innings in a 7-game series (factoring in possibility of extra innings), they should be in a good position.
These are the kind of stats I like, I'm sure Luhnow wants McCullers/Keuchel/etc. to feel at ease knowing they got help. Just go 6/7 IP and let the guys in the back close it out. We need Keuchel and McCullers to go twice each in the ALDS, so I doubt high pitch counts will even occur. ALCS, we gotta keep those IP down as well and let the relievers close them out.
Great point. Let's say Houston acquires one elite reliever. The breakdown of 70 innings over a 7 game series: Keuchel 17 (starts games 1, 4, and 7) McCullers 10 (starts games 2 and 6) Devenski 8 (long relief) McHugh 5 (starts game 3) Morton 5 (starts game 5) Britton 4 (closer) Giles 4 (setup/closer) Harris 4 (setup) Peacock 4 (long relief) Fiers 4 (long relief, likely extra innings) Gregerson 3 (spot duty, likely extra innings) Sipp 2 (loogy)
So, Keuchel and LMJ start 2 games each, McHugh and Morton start 1 each and Peacock or Fiers starts game 7 but only pitches 4 innings? Do you really think the Astros would come close to doing anything like that?
Sipp can't pitch in high leverage situations. I'd lower his innings to nil and up the usage of Peacock.
