Minor League Opening Day is April 6, 2017. Fresno will open at home against Reno. Corpus Christi will start their campaign on the road in Arkansas The new Class A Advanced team: The Buies Creek Astros will play their games on the campus of Campbell University. They'll open 2017 at home against Salem. Quad Cities will host Wisconsin to begin the year. Short-season opening day is June 19. Tri-City will be in Connecticut that night. Greeneville's season will begin on June 22, and the GCL will start June 24. The DSL begins on June 3. So, as always, three quick questions. 1. Breakout position player/pitcher 2. Prospects facing make-or-break years 3. Guys who caught your eye in 2016 and will be paying closer attention to in 2017 Baseball America's Top 10 Astros prospects will be out tomorrow. Here's my top 15 entering the season. Feel free to chip in with your own list. 1. Kyle Tucker 2. Francis Martes 3. Joe Musgrove 4. Forrest Whitley 5. David Paulino 6. Franklin Perez 7. D.J. Fisher 8. Hector Perez 9. Rogelio Armenteros 10. Ronnie Dawson 11. Garrett Stubbs 12. Gilberto Celestino 13. Ramon Laureano 14. Stephen Wrenn 15. Osvaldo Duarte My Next 15, in no particular order Guadalupe Chavez Jake Rogers Daz Cameron Myles Straw Jose Luis Hernandez Enoli Paredes Anibal Sierra Elieser Hernandez Brendan McCurry Jorge Alcala Jacob Dorris Reymin Guduan Cristian Javier Jonathan Arauz Yordan Alvarez *OP edited in light of McCann trade
Breakout: Perez, Wrenn Make or break: Aplin, Ferrell Watchlist: Guzman, Nova, Celestino, Emanuel, Sierra, Tanielu, Laureano, Martin, Bostick, Radziewski, James, Birk, Duarte, Framber, Dawson, Sandoval, Chavez, Toro, Cueta Top 15: 1. Tucker 60 2. Martes 55 3. Whitley 55 4. Perez 55 5. Cameron 55 6. Paulino 55 7. Fisher 55 8. Abreu 50 9. M. Sierra 50 10. Nova 50 11. Davis 50 12. Celestino 50 13. Stubbs 50 14. Guzman 50 15. Wrenn 45 Other grade 45 hitters: Kemmer, Heineman, Garcia, Aplin, A Sierra, Tanielu, Laureano, Martin, Birk, Straw, Trompiz, Dawson, Duarte, Rogers, Arauz, Toro, Alvarez, Cueta Other grade 45 pitchers: Hauschild, Frias, Yuhl, West, Holmes, Guduan, McCurry, Jankowski, Sneed, Emanuel, Thornton, Armenteros, Deetz, Dorris, Bostick, Radziewski, James, Elieser, J Hernandez, Framber, Dykxhoorn, Ferrell, Quiala, CSierra, H Perez, Chavez, Sandoval, Adcock, Macuare, Alcala, Paredes, Javier Farm still stacked.
Spoiler 1. Francis Martes 2. Kyle Tucker 3. David Paulino 4. Franklin Perez 5. A.J. Reed 6. Forrest Whitley 7. Teoscar Hernandez 8. Yulieski Gurriel 9. D.J. Fisher 10. Garrett Stubbs
1st page. Future looks bright. Can't believe the Astros are finally at this point. Class of AL (arguably).
Those of you looking for an ace to trade for might as well just look here. Martes has ace stuff. 1. Francis Martes, rhp | Born: Nov. 24, 1995. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-0. Wt.: 232. Signed: Dominican Republic, 2012. Signed by: Albert Gonzalez/Sandy Nin/Domingo Ortega (Marlins). SCOUTING GRADES Fastball: 70. Curveball: 70. Changeup: 55. Control: 55. Based on 20-80 scouting scale—where 50 represents major league average—and future projection rather than present tools. Background: The Marlins don’t spend much money internationally, but they have done a great job of finding bargains on the international market. Miami signed Martes for just $78,000 in 2012 and watched him quickly develop from a pitcher with a high-80s fastball and some feel into a low- to mid-90s fireballer. He stood out in the Dominican Summer League in 2013 before he ever pitched in the U.S. Impressed with Martes’ ability to mix a plus fastball and plus curveball in the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League in 2014, the Astros ensured he was included in the Jarred Cosart trade that July, even though Martes was struggling to get outs and throw strikes in a complex league. He has made further developmental leaps since then as he has filled out and developed a changeup. Once considered a likely power reliever, Martes has developed into one of the fastest-moving starting pitchers in the minors. For example, he was the youngest pitcher in Double-A when the 2016 season began. Martes started slowly at Corpus Christi and had a 5.03 ERA in early June, but he went 5-4, 2.67 in the second half with 81 strikeouts and 20 walks in 71 innings. Scouting Report: Martes’ stuff has few peers in the minors or majors. He has touched 100 mph with his fastball and generally sits 93-97. His plus-plus four-seamer doesn’t have exceptional run, but it still generates plenty of swings and misses thanks to its extreme velocity and his ability to work in and out and up and down. Scouts do debate whether Martes’ ability to work all four quadrants is by design or by good fortune, because he sometimes misses his target significantly but still manages to be around the strike zone. Even though he’s short for a righthander—he is officially listed at 6-foot-1 but probably is closer to 6 feet—Martes gets some downhill plane when he works down in the zone. His hard downer curveball at 85-87 mph gives him a second potential 70-grade pitch on the 20-80 scouting scale. Its power and downward break is reminiscent of that of fellow Astros righthander Lance McCullers Jr. Martes’ curve comes in at slider speed, but it has true 12-to-6 or 11-to-5 break rather than the sweep of a slider. Unlike McCullers, Martes uses his fastball as his main weapon, which sets up his curve. His changeup is less consistent, but it generates plus grades from some and it improved as the year wore on. He throws it harder than most changeups, but it generates whiffs thanks to its late drop. It will show some late fade at times, though more by accident than design. The fade generally happens when he spins out of his delivery instead of staying direct to the plate. Martes has also toyed with using a cutter against lefthanders. The Future: Martes has the raw profile of an ace with two pitches that grade near the top of the scale, a changeup that is at least average and at least average control. He has filled out into a thick-chested, meaty righthander who evokes comparisons with Johnny Cueto because of his short stature and big stuff. Martes is ready for Triple-A Frenso as a 21-year-old and could reach the big leagues at some point in 2017.
There appears to be a clear delineation between our prospects, at least to me. Tucker Martes Paulino Whitley F. Perez Fisher Those appear to be our clear top 6, top 9 if you want to include Teo, Reed and Musgrove. After that there appears to be a large group of projectable international players (celestino, m. sierra, a. sierra, nova etc), and a smaller group of less projectable, but further developed american players (rogers, dawson, ferrell, stubbs, davis). Throw Daz in as the projectable American prospect, and there seems to be 15 or so guys you could put in any order depending on your personal view of things. Daz, Rogers, Celestino, and Riley Ferrell would probably be my 7-10 right now
My top 4 prospects by position with grades: C: Stubbs 50 Rogers 45 Heineman 45 Toro 45 1B: Reed 55 Alvarez 45 MacDonald 40 Roa 40 2B: Tanielu 45 Arauz 45 Birk 45 Hyde 40 SS: Sierra 50 Trompiz 45 Duarte 45 Cueta 45 3B: Moran 50 Davis 50 Nova 45 Franco 45 RF: Tucker 60 Teoscar 50 Wrenn 45 Laureano 45 CF: Cameron 55 Celestino 50 Aplin 45 Straw 45 LF: Fisher 55 Dawson 45 Martin 45 Garcia 45 RHP: Martes 55 Whitley 55 Perez 55 Paulino 55 LHP: Guduan 45 Emanuel 45 F. Valdez 45 Sandoval 45
I'm rooting for the Astros to draft Brendan McKay or Seth Romero out of UH if he has a monster junior year. #2017MlbDraft
I'm not well versed in the minor league, but everyone praises Tucker so much and is scared to trade him. Is he just killing it? How does he compare to Bregman or Correa when they were in the minors?
No close to those 2 right now, they were super elite prospects. At this point Tucker is merely upper tier, but Bregaan was at the same place entering last year, and his performance moved him into elite status. Tucker could make a similar jump this year. His numbers aren't all that great, but his projection is what people like so much.The power isn't really there so far, but many think when he fills out a little he's going to be an absolute stud of a hitter, and his K/BB rates and production were extremely good for a player his age in A ball. Plus he has pretty good athleticism, so he should be a good OF. Having said that, I don't think anybody should be scared to trade him for an ace. Projections are just that, not guarantees.
For reference, Tucker hit for a 119 wRC+ (9% BB, 17% k) as a 19 year old in A ball. Correa hit for a 149 wRC+ (11% BB, 16% k) as an 18 year old in the same league. SO Tucker is not on Correa's level. That said, he is still an elite prospect and probably a consensus MLB Top 50 prospect; he has the potential to be a rich man's Hunter Pence.
In my opinion Tucker will be a top 10 prospect by the end of next year. He really turned it on after his promotion.
My guess is yes, but could drop to middle of the pack quickly if the pitchers stick in majors and no one fills their void.