I'd like to see everyone as a solid prospect, but they aren't. That isn't to say there aren't some legit guys in there to go with some longshots that could surprise. No team has 3-4 OFers at every level projected to be MLB contributors.
I like Teoscar Hernandez. I hope he plays so well in this audition if you will that he is a projected starter next year. I want to see what he & Kemp can do so we know how big of a need another OF will be in the offseason.
Grading prospects isn't about what they are now, it's about placing a value on the probability of their various potential outcomes. Sure, thus far Preston Tucker hasn't been able to establish himself as a major leaguer, and that certainly lowers his grade, but his age, short MLB track record, and minor league numbers indicate there is still some upside, hence the C+. Hard to label Aplin as a replacement player when he hasn't even reached the majors yet; given his defensive reputation that is his floor. Not sure why you'd release Garcia when he is a prospect they gave a $900k bonus to who has steadily advanced thru the minors. No real argument in the AA or high A guys, and don't see how your comments vary from my grading. Also, I'd say you underrated Ferguson; dig into his numbers. Again, dig into Pal, Benedetti, and Roas scouting reports and numbers. Yes, they're not studs, but they are guys that have shown some skill and 2 of them were just drafted 2 months ago. Again, don't see how your comments differ much from my grades. I guess you're into drafting guys and writing them off 2 months later even though they are producing at an age appropriate level. Houston has one of the deepest farm systems in baseball, not sure what grounds you're using to poopoo these guys.
With how good Bregman has looked at 3B, I'm thinking he's staying at 3B. I don't think the Astros are as down on Gurriel as the board and I don't think they play him at DH or 1B. Hell, there's a chance Springer shares the OF with two Gurriels midway through next season. This may not be rational, I, for some reason (probably stupid), get the feeling the Astros will try to get two starting OFs and a backup from Marisnick, the two Gurriels, Bregman, Hernandez, Fisher, Kemp, and maybe Rasmus (on a small deal). Astros will likely try to get another bat for DH/1B, but not sure about this. I see Astros focusing their money on catcher, pitching, and more pitching (not counting Gurriel the younger). Caveat: Most of this post is a gut feeling and ramblings of a fan. As such, this probably has no bearing on future reality, but for whatever reason is how my warped mind sees the future unfolding.
At least 99% of 26 year-olds who have not yet reached the majors have a ceiling as a replacement player regardless of defensive reputation. Defense is usually the quickest skill to erode. That said, his plate discipline skills at least give him a chance to be an up and down player or a backup. Right now, he doesn't look like a September call up.
If Aplin didn't have a major league future, he wouldn't have been added to the 40 man right before the Rule 5 draft. Luhnow knew there were teams that would have picked him and kept him on their 25 man roster. I wholly disagree with your assertion that 99% of AAA 26 year olds have replacement level ceilings and very much doubt the actual numbers back you up. Aplin could be a 5th OF for almost very NL team right now. Hell, JB Shuck played 60 games in the majors this season. I get it, Aplin isn't a sexy prospect, and he has had a rough year. But when you factor in his inconsistent playing time and bad BABIP luck combined with his OBP track record, defense, and the most prominent evidence available (that his GM added him to the 40 man roster o prevent other teams from adding him to their 25 man roster), you can see that writing him off as a replacement level ceiling prospect is silly.
A lot has happened since last offseason. Maybe slight exaggeration (80 or 90% may be more accurate and meant hitters), but it is a lot closer to reality than saying his floor is a replacement player. I choose a random year and looked at all qualified 26-year old PCL hitters that hadn't made the majors. Only one had positive fWAR and he topped out at 3.1 WAR. He was drafted as a pitcher before making it as a hitter. Feel free to pick a year at random and do the same.
I'm inclined to agree with Joe Joe. Saying Ap could be a 5th outfielder on any NL team is basically saying Ap is a replacement level player. Anyone whose 50-90% projection is 0-1 WAR is a replacement player. If you're 26 and in the minors, you'll pretty much be hitting your 100% projection to produce more than 2 WAR. Anything below 2 WAR i basically chalk up to within 2 standard deviations. That's not the worst thing in the world and it's no insult to Ap when thousands of minor league players never reach the majors.
If you've ever read TCB, you know Snake is a notorious prospect over-rater. He makes great depth charts, but his rankings are always at least half a grade optimistic. On the other hand, if you could interpret John Sickel's grades as just success probabilities, slapping a C+ grade on a prospect probably still puts their chances at being even a 2 WAR player at less than 20%. Saying we have a bunch of 'C' level players basically mean they have some talent that could play at the ML level but the deck is heavily stacked against then (i.e. 90%+ chance of not being better than a replacement player). I don't know if that makes them a 'legitimate' prospect vs just 'a' prospect. That's potato/potato.
It's a long ways off, but I love idea of signing Lourdes Gurriel and trading for an OFer this offseason, preferably Braun. I don't love the OF crop this FA period, headlined by Cespedes (31), Bautista (36), Reddick (29), and Fowler (31). Go into 2017 with OF core of: Springer, OF trade piece, Bregman/Gurriel, Kemp, Marisnick. Then, you have Lourdes (22) and Fisher waiting in the farm, with Tucker and Daz deeper in the farm and potentially expendable. Either way, I really like the flexibility of this team. We have a ton of players who can play a ton of positions, and that should help keep the roster healthy and fresh.
This is the first I've ever been accused of overrating prospects On an Astros board that I can recall (TCB guys may have quibbled on a particular prospect but never labeled me an "overrater"). I'd be interested to see how you'd grade each of the prospects I provided my grades for, especially considering you went on to essentially confirm my grading scale.Also would be interested in seeing juicy' grades for those guys. Easy to throw stones.
I think your relative evaluation on players is pretty good actually. But when it comes to placing grades on people, I've found you typically err on the high side of evaluations. A general example, if people are speculating on who's gonna be top 100, you'll name 10 guys when the big lists have 6-7 astros prospects. Maybe i'm conflating Sickels' system with Kiley Mcdaniel or Baseball America, but there's a finite number of prospects at each grade level. There's something like 10-12 A-level prospects. The cut-off for A- is around 25; the cutoff for a B+ is in the 50-60's. You calling nearly every OF in the Astros system a C or better implies they're all top maybe 500-600 prospects in all of the minor leagues, which could be true but I don't believe it to be so. So yea, i do think you grade on the optimistic side.
I love having a guy like Aplin in AAA, but he is a 5th OF type. We probably hoped he could develop into a solid 4th option, but he now has a .668 OPS in over 800PAs in a hitter friendly PCL. It is safe to say he isn't going to be a regular MLB player. JB Shuck is basically the definition of replacement level, and his career AAA OPS is 100 points higher. Garcia's advance through the minors isn't really on merit. They paid him, but that is a sunk cost. He hasn't performed. Pal is a 38th round pick, so being drafted 2 months ago doesn't mean much. He has 6BB:24K in 90PAs as one of the oldest players in his league. Benedetti does have good numbers, but is a corner OF without power. If he played up the middle I might feel better about him. I wonder if he'll get switched to pitching at some point. Roa is a very good athlete, but at some point the results have to start matching up, and for him they aren't.
Tucker & Kemp I don't have a huge different in grade, other than Tucker's MLB career knocks him down to a C for me. Aplin would be a C, Garcia wouldn't rate for me, and Fisher would be a B- (though I'm low on him compared to other people). Laureano=C/C+, Ferguson=C-, Boyd=C/C+, Martin=C+, Sewald & Velasquez=non-prospects Tucker=B/B+, Straw=C/C+, Wrenn=C+, Porter & Mizell=Non-prospects Cameron=C+ (I'm actually being friendly based on natural ability and age, but I think he is a total bust), Dawson=C+, Roa=C-, Beneditti=C-, Pal=Non-prospect
Basically if you rate a B grade at all, you're a top 250ish prospect. I think highly of our system but we don't have that many top 250 prospects.
After a slow start to his pro career, it looks like Ronnie Dawson is playing some good baseball. In the month of August (15 games thus far), Dawson is slashing .294/.379/.373. Those numbers are probably similar (with better slugging) if you also count the later part of July. I'm just too lazy to run the numbers. In a span of exactly one month, he's gotten his batting average up from .149 to .217, and it looks like it'll keep going up.
